Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

skies clearing and should be a clear night tonight. Did insert
some patchy fog in the far southeastern fcst area where conditions
will be more prime due to recent rain and clear sky.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

The latest satellite imagery shows low level clouds have begun to
lift and scatter out over the Red River Valley and west central
Minnesota. Expect cloud cover to continue diminishing this evening,
becoming mostly clear overnight. High pressure will move east
following Highway 2 toward Lake Superior tonight, prompting light
winds and making for a nice mild evening. Lows overnight will drop
into the 50s at most locations.

On Monday, a combination of breezy southerly return flow and an
upper level ridge building through the forecast area will bring a
warmer day with highs nearing 90 in the Devils Lake basin area. A
front begins approaching from western North Dakota late Monday and
some weak shortwave energy skirts around the area during the day.
Moderate instability will develop during the afternoon, especially
in eastern North Dakota, but ridging aloft will keep mid levels warm
enough to hold capping into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Expecting storms Monday night to the west across northern ND and
moving to the east into the overnight time period. Marginally severe
wind and hail would be the primary concerns, winds around 60 mph
and hail up to an inch and a half. Boundary will cross the FA
during the day Tuesday with instability and shear combining to
produce a favorable environment in the warm sector for severe
storms. Expecting the front to bisect the FA from NE to SW by mid
day with 2000 to 3000 J/kg of CAPE developing along and ahead of
the front. As a result storms will rapidly develop once capping
layer is overcome during the mid to late afternoon. Storm hazards
will be winds over 60mph, hail up to 1.5" and a couple storms may
be capable of a tornado or two.

Thereafter a period of quiet weather is expected with western CONUS
ridge building north into Canada with weak NW flow aloft persisting
the rest of the week. Temperatures will be around seasonal normals
with highs in the 80s. The only chances for precip will be slight
with timing in question next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions thru the pd. Could be patchy fog at BJI but at the
present time confidence is too low to mention. A bit better risk
of patchy fog farther south toward Wadena. Light winds tonight
then increasing southerly winds Monday.




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