Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140538
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN GRAND FORKS AND
SHOULD SHORTLY IN FARGO. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY VORT OVER
N CNTRL ND HAS BEGAN TO BREAK UP A BIT...WHICH HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE. THIS AREA OF PRECIP MOVES INTO N VALLEY LATER AND
WEAKER...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH OF GRAND FORKS.
WILL NOT REDUCE TOO MUCH CURRENT POPS BUT HAVE CUT IN HALF QPFS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 ON THE MN SIDE...GENERALLY WITH ONE HALF TO AN
INCH TOTAL. ADJUSTED TEMPS THROUGH 18Z WITH CONSSHORT AND NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST NOR ONGOING HEADLINES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS NOW ALONG AND WEST OF A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY
LINE...ROUGHLY FOLLOWING FORWARD EDGE OF A WIDE BAND OF H300-H500
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE
STRONGEST CONVERGENCE IS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...WHERE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
FOR OUR CWA...AXIS OF GREATEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES OVER
THE VALLEY AROUND 12Z AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AROUND 00Z
MONDAY. THUS...POPS LOOK REASONABLE BUT DID SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL NEARER 12Z...WHICH HI RES
MODELS ALSO INDICATE. VSBYS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO ONE HALF MILE TO OUR
WEST...SO ADVISORY CONDS STILL EXPECTED BUT NO INDICATION EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF ADVISORY AREA WILL BE NEEDED. TWO TO FOUR INCHES
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHERN VALLEY (UP TO FARGO) STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS/SKY PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EARLY FINGER OF LIGHT SNOW IF APPROACHING JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SHOULD BE TO VALLEY CITY IN THE 7 PM TO 8 PM TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER
THIS LIGHT SNOW IF MOVING INTO DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE SOME
IMPACT. WHILE I DID NOT REMOVE POPS...DID DELAY CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND REMOVED BLOWING SNOW THROUGH 9 PM
AS THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION TO BLOW AROUND. BIS ONLY
RECEIVED ONE HALF AN INCH SO FAR. NO OTHER CHANGES TO 7 PM UPDATE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT AND WIND TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH EVOLUTION OF EVENT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT ALONG WITH THE NAM SO WILL UTILIZE A BLEND.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN FA IN THE 00-03Z
TIMEFRAME THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND 20-23KT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...SO WHEN SNOW IS FALLING EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 9Z. THE BEST LIFT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS
DOES MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
THE WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY IF SNOW MOVES IN FASTER TONIGHT AND IS HEAVIER
THAN EXPECTED. IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SATURATE TO THE
EAST THOUGH WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA.

ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
VALLEY EARLY THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THOUGH WITH NO
BLOWING SNOW THREAT AFTER 15Z OR SO.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST
WITH ALL OTHER AREAS DRY. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND
MINIMAL CAA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. NW FLOW
WILL PERSIST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD NW TO SE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCH OR SO...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE REGION NEAR BETTER LIFT.

ON TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SOME CAA SO TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE
EAST AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY DAYS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND ZONAL ALOFT ENCOURAGING SURFACE
TEMP RISES TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES AS 850 MB READINGS STAY ABOVE
FREEZING A GOOD PART OF THE TIME. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IS REFLECTED WEAKLY AT SFC
BUT WITH TEMP PROFILES AS THEY ARE ANYTHING OR EVERYTHING FROM
SN/RA/FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CHALLENGING FCST THIS PD DUE TO VARIETY OF VSBY/CIGS AS AREAS OF
SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-3SM RANGE.  SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 KTS IN
THE RRV THRU 15Z SUN WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-
     024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ003-029-030-
     040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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