Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191238
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NO FORECAST CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCE.

UPPER LOW OVER S MB WILL DRIFT EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. LEAD
IMPULSE/SHEAR AXIS OVER NW MN WILL LIFT NE THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS MOVING IN LATER TODAY. RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE LINING UP NICELY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM K285 SURFACE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WITH CURRENT VSBY UNDER SNOW BAND BRIEFLY DROPPING
BLO 7 MILES FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME MEASURABLE SNOW FALL SO
INCREASED POPS TO COVER BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
BAND NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS FAR AS PCPN. AS LOWER CIGS PUSH EAST
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES SO MAINTAINED MENTION. NO REPORTS SO
FAR OF FZDZ HOWEVER THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY SO WILL
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OFF SET BY CLOUD
COVER HOWEVER WITH WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
RECOVER ABOVE AVERAGE.

KEPT LOW END POPS OVER THE NE TONIGHT AS WEAK LIFT AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
MILD WITH COOLEST READINGS OVER THE NW FA WHERE SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUDS HOWEVER WITH RELATIVELY
WARM COLUMN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SO CONTINUED WITH LOW
END POPS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH
SOME DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS LATE THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF FZDZ
SO KEPT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY
INDICATE STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONSOLIDATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE
HAPPENS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE POSITION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE REGION MON/TUE...BUT LOCATION WILL HINGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS THEN DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND APPROACHING PACIFIC
ENERGY FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH EARLY WEEK...WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEGREE OF COOLING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY WEST AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER AT BEST SOME PARTS OF THE REGION MAY GET IN MVFR
CONDITIONS. ALSO SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY FROM VALLEY WEST WHICH MAY
ALSO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER





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