Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240255 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Added slight pops for band producing light drizzle/light rain
from Roseau to Grand Forks to Cooperstown, which will exit
eastward over the next few hours. Fog and low vsbys continue to
be a concern in the southern valley and are expected to remain
particularly low (1/4 mi to 1-2 mi) in Ransom and Sargent
counties through the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Rain chances will be the primary challenge early in the short
term followed by temperatures. High resolution model guidance in
good agreement with current rain band trend associated with
impressive mid level f-gen forcing across the northern fa. F-gen
forcing gradually weakens and shifts east through the early
evening. Also drier air which has limited northward progresses of
current rain band air will be pushing southward helping to dry out
rain band. Have added isold T into early evening with narrow band
of convection on southern flank of clearing over SE ND in area of
favorable lapse rates and elevated boundary although elevated
instability and cape minimal. Global models have all pcpn ending
across the FA close to midnight. As drier air pushes south
overnight coolest temperatures will be across the NW-N with the
southeast half holding a few degrees either side of freezing.

Friday looks dry and a bit cooler as high pressure noses into the
fa. How much solar off sets cold advection will hinge on cloud
cover and with some uncertainty held close to inherited
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

A fairly quiet long term period is expected with a dry Saturday
followed by an upper wave moving across the north, as split-flow
keeps the primary weather drivers across the southern CONUS with an
upper low transiting the southern plains.  Models are indicating a
chance for a wintry mix of precipitation early Sunday morning
turning to all rain by Sunday afternoon, with POPs mainly along the
international border.  Latest guidance indicates the biggest impacts
due to light ice accumulations, although minimal, would be vcnty of
the Turtle Mountains.

Monday through early Wednesday will become dry with daytime highs
nearing the 50 deg mark for much of the area.  Low POPs then return
for the second half of the week, mainly west of the valley Wed and
across west central MN on Thu aftn.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 734 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Drizzle will taper off over the next few hours. Will likely see a
period of VFR cigs/vsbys in the northern half of the area this
evening, but otherwise expect mainly MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys for
KFAR- KBJI areas and occurring intermittently at other TAF sites
tonight and early Friday as low level moisture remains strong and
winds light. Uncertainty in fog potential so left LIFR vsbys out
for now. Expect conditions to gradually improve to VFR late Friday
morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...BP



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