Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151606
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Eastern ND has seen some light snow showers this morning but the
more organized activity extends across central ND. Expectation is
that the valley will have brief periods of light snow this morning
and a stronger push will move into the northern valley then east
of the valley this afternoon, with greatest snowfall amounts
generally the northeastern half of the CWA. Grids still reflect
this and no adjustments made at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

No changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Upper air pattern becomes more progressive. Persistent upper
level ridge that has been in place over the western US will
get rolled over as a significant upper level trough over the
eastern Pacific moves east. Respectable height falls of at
least 160 meters are expected with the eastern Pacific trough
as it moves inland. However the trough will drop into the
Desert Southwest.

A weaker trough over the Yukon will move into southern SASK
by 00z Sun. Little or precip is expected with the trough
itself. However warm advection precipitation will precede
the upper trough. Cross section indicates good warm advection
to occur aloft today through tonight. Cross section indicated
the Red River Valley and east remains decoupled today and Sat.
Will stay on the cool side of guidance for eastern zones.
Colder air moves in aloft Sat.  Low level frontogenesis will
produce the light snow for much of the the northern two
thirds of the valley for today and tonight. One to three
inches of snow still looks good for today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

An upper trough will be digging into the western US on Saturday
night with the northern branch remaining more progressive through
the rest of the weekend. A weak short wave will move through the
Northern Plains on Sunday without much fanfare. High pressure will
reside over SD on Sunday but will move off to the east Sunday night
as the next upper wave and surface trough approach from the west.
This wave may bring a couple of inches of snow to parts of the area
on Sunday night and Monday. South winds will switch to the northwest
on Monday as a cold front moves through the area also. The next
system may affect the area on Wednesday and Thursday. This system
looks to be stronger than the Monday system...possibly producing
more precipitation and ushering in colder temps for Friday and the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 652 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Mostly MVFR conditions were across the area. Some VFR conditions
were in the southern valley. Visibilities have decreased with snow
moving into the northwestern zones. Cigs tend to jump around a
bit. Expect MVFR and some IFR conditions over eastern North Dakota
where snow is expected to fall today. MVFR/IFR conditions should
shift east as he precip shifts east Friday night and Saturday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JH



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