Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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949
FXUS63 KFGF 072120
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
320 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Impacts will continue to be low visibility/potential blizzard
conditions in open areas with gusty winds this evening.

Preferred Higher end model wind guidance continues to indicate
strong winds continuing into mid evening or so mainly over the
Devils Lake basin southward into the far western forecast area as
tight surface pressure gradient remains in place. This region has
consistently seen wind gusts from 35 to 40+ and vsby blo 1 mile
most of the day with some localized near white out conditions
possible. With conditions continuing have decided to upgrade to a
blizzard warning which would cover the evening commute home.
farther east visibility not as low so will continue advisory as
scheduled and later shifts can determined if extension necessary. Snow
showers further limiting vsby should gradually shift east later
tonight as mid level shear axis pulls east. Additional
accumulations should be no more than a couple of inches at the
high side over main NW MN. With clouds and wind holding overnight
temperatures not likely to drop off a great deal.

Thursday should continue to see a gradual relaxing of the the
surface pressure gradient. Winds aloft through shallow mixed layer
also not as strong so blsn not anticipated other than some minor
drifting. Minimal recovery expected with temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

For Thursday night into Friday...the remaining remnant of the
surface low and resultant storm system finally departs. A few
lingering snow showers will continue...and northerly winds continue
to bring colder air over the region. Otherwise...arctic high
pressure continues to shift over the forecast area...bringing the
coldest temperatures so far for the season. By late Friday...the
upper pattern becomes a bit more zonal and increasing thicknesses
will result in some moderation of temperatures.

By Saturday into Sunday...another system approaches the area but
model consensus points to a more southerly track...with the center
of low pressure tracking across the central plains. As the system
tracks east...will see a reinforcement of cold air over the area.
Otherwise...temperatures will remain on the cooler side...with
little precipitation through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby will continue across the region the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Lowest vsby in the
DVL area where winds are the strongest and not likely to improve
until evening. Potential vor VFR conditions tomorrow as drier air
works in and winds/shsn diminish.  Remember 12/7/41.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030-039-049-052>054.

     Blizzard Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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