Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261444
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WILL BE SKY TRENDS AND
IMPACTS ON TEMPS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID CLEARING EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CWA. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE DECREASING
SKY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTS OF ON TEMPS AS
SOME RECENT SNOW STILL VISIBLE OVER NW MINNESOTA. WITH THE FULL
SOLAR TODAY AND HIGH SPRINGTIME SOLAR ANGLE...EVEN WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WE SHOULD LOSE A GOOD PORTION OF
THIS SNOW. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE. SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WAVE TONIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH MAIN PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS REGION ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE WEST THEN
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AFTER 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SAT. IN THE MEANTIME SHORT WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONE SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK
OVER SASK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. EXPECT CLOUDS TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TODAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI
AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR FRI.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SAT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DETAILS WITH A MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...BUT THE
MAIN P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW AS
THE PRECIP ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN WITH CIGS FROM 19 TO
29 HUNDRED FT. A CLEAR SKY WAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ADA MN TO WADENA
MN. ALSO CLOUD DECK WAS BREAKING UP NORTH OF A LINE FROM BDE TO HCO.
CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALSO BANDS OF VFR CIGS
AROUND 45 HUNDRED FT WERE OVER EASTERN ND. CLOUDS WERE MOVING SOUTH
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHWEST MN TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH. EXPECT BANDS OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND TO FILL IN WITH
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AFTER 16Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND ALSO CLEARING TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES





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