Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020257
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
957 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

UPDATED GRIDS A BIT AGO TO A BIT HIGHER POP IN DVL BASIN TO
LANGDON-CAVALIER FOR ACTIVITY MOVING IN. STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS
ANTICIPATED...BUT ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME SHOWERS
MAKING IT EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE RRV WHICH MAKES SENSE. BUT
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND 850 MB JET IS FOCUSED TOWARD BISMARCK
WHERE SVR AREA IS ATTM.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WHAT HAPPENS
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. THERE IS A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SOME UPPER JET ENERGY
FEEDING INTO IT. NO REAL SFC BOUNDARY BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP
SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING BETWEEN ESTEVAN AND BRANDON IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE ARE MOVING DUE EAST AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE FA. THERE IS A WEAK SFC LOW OUT OVER EASTERN MT WHERE TEMPS
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S. ALTHOUGH NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE...GIVES SFC BASED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERY LITTLE SHEAR ATTM THO. DESPITE THIS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS MAY DRIFT INTO THE WEST/NW FA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETTING THE STAGE...THIS
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS DO NOT BREAK IT OUT
ANYWHERE TUE AND HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT DROP IN GUIDANCE HIGHS AS A
RESULT. FROM 12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MODELS SHOW THE MAIN SFC LOW
OVER NORTHWEST SD MOVING TO MOBRIDGE SD...NOT A FAST MOVER BY ANY
MEANS. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. MODELS KEEP DECENT
850MB FLOW OVER EASTERN SD UP INTO NW MN IMPINGING ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A BAND OF HEAVIER
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE UPPER JET HOLDS BACK CLOSER TO
THE SFC LOW. EXPECT BETTER HEATING AND CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SFC LOW BY MID TO LATE TUE AFTERNOON. THINK TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR BACK NEAR THE SFC LOW...AND IF IT EXPANDS INTO THIS FA WILL
BE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THESE INITIAL TSTMS
SPREAD EAST-NE. SPC HAS REMOVED THE ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
POSSIBLY DUE TO NOT ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. EITHER WAY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA REMAINS WEST OF A LINE FROM
KBWP-KFAR-KGFK-KDVL. THINK ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST ON WED. THEN A
RIBBON OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NOSE IN FOR THU. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN AND WI. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH...BUT
MOST HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE BLENDED
SOLUTION GIVES TOM LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. KEPT FAIRLY HIGH POPS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN SOME LOWER ONES FOR MONDAY AS THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL BE MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS EVEN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW TEENS C.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

HIGH UNCERTAINITY NOT ONLY IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND TIMING AT THE
TAF SITES THIS FCST PD BUT ALSO IN ANY DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 850 MB MOISTURE AXIS DOES INCREASE OVER
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY SO IDEA OF SOME LOWER CIGS
SEEMS REASONABLE. ATTM KEPT IDEA FROM PREV TAFS OF LOW END VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TIMING AND SPECIFICS
JUST NOT CLEAR ATTM. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE 10 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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