Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 090912
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THE PERIOD.

FAIRLY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SET UP...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CLEAR SKIES ARE ON THE EDGE OF
THE HIGHS WHILE THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS SEEN CLOUD COVER MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA HAVE FALLEN
DOWN TO JUST BELOW ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS ARE IN THE 15 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. THINK THAT THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
DECREASING WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS...ALLOWING A BRIEF DROP TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING IN ISOLATED SPOTS BUT NOTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. WILL KEEP US HEADLINE FREE FOR NOW BUT MONITOR. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES EVEN WITH SOME SUN...WHILE THE WEST WILL BE IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MASS AND READINGS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE TEENS.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
ON BRINGING A VIGOROUS JET STREAK DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INTO OUR AREA. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOSTLY BE OFF TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THE WESTERN CWA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK FOR A WHILE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE MODELS
BRING THE QPF...AND SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS KEEP EVERYTHING WEST OF US.
HOWEVER...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP OUR FAR
WESTERN TIER WITH LIKELY LIGHT SNOW FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CHANCE POPS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT SO THINK THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR
TWO EVEN WITH SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME HEALTHY QPF. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY COLD OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS IN THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES OR JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH WILL
CONTINUE. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE MINOR FEATURES...SO
WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AS THEY HAVE BEEN...WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT FROM
COLD IN THE NORTHEAST TO MORE MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW WAVES CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THE SFC
RIDGE WILL MOVE E FAIRLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM...WITH
RETURN FLOW HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE MEASURABLE PCPN BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
BJI. MODELED RH VALUES INDICATE BJI SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN THE 09Z
TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. LOW VFR CIGS AROUND 5K FEET THEN MOVE DROP SOUTH
OUT OF MANITOBA IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME...REACHING TVF AND GFK
AROUND 10Z AND FAR AROUND 12Z BEFORE SHIFTING WEST OF THE VALLEY.
APPEARS DVL WILL BE ONLY SITE THAT WILL HAVE CIGS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY. MODELS DO INDICATE CIGS DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE. IF
THIS OCCURS IT SHOULD BE MID DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WINDS SHIFT EAST BY EVENING...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP CIGS REMAIN VFR AT DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER



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