Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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106
FXUS63 KFGF 220958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Upper level low pressure system was over KS and will affect areas
south of us. Split flow was over North America with southern
stream over the southern states and northern stream over southern
Canada and the northern states. KS upper level low will produce
north or northeast winds today and tonight across much of the Red
River Valley. Short wavelength upper ridge from MT to SASK will
move into the the area this afternoon and tonight. Return flow
will occur over the Devils Lake basin and will shift into eastern
ND tonight. Low level convergent flow will occur over the area
today. Low level moist layer was relatively shallow and so will
leave flurries/light freezing drizzle out of the forecast for
today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

500 mb short wave trough will move east-southeast into eastern ND
and northwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Initially
airmass is quite dry, but as it moves east there is increased
moisture near 850 mb.  Thus there is a hint on most models of a
little light precip with this feature.  It would appear to be more
flurries than anything and superblend gave sub 15 pops and after
coord with ABR/BIS left it that way and thus kept fcst dry.  After
this system 500 mb ridge builds into Montana and spreads east into
the northern Plains Thursday as warmer air at 850 mb moves in.  How
much is realized at the surface in terms of warming is questionable
due to anticipated clouds.

Main question in the long term is precip chances Fri-Sat as several
disorganized 500 mb short waves move northeast into the area and
then develop a better 500 mb trough in S Manitoba/NW Ontario.  Not a
lot of moisture available with this system and most of it is when
the 500 mb trough is stronger north of the International border.
Thus the low chance pops given by model blended solns appear
reasonable. Overall a light precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Do not expect much change in the TAFs for the next 24 hours. Some
ceilings may rise a little while others may fall slightly, but
overall they will stay fairly stagnant. The lowest vsbys have been
around KDVL, where winds will stay the lightest. Think there will
be some fluctuation in vsbys around KDVL, as they have through
the evening. Other sites will keep steady north winds, which
should limit the fog from getting too thick.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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