Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Refined pops slightly cutting back on northwest edge. No other
changes.

UPDATE Issued at 708 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Made some adjustments to the POPs for current rain entering the
southern CWA. Most of the thunder is on the southeastern edge but
light rain showers extend nearly to Fargo and up towards Bemidji.
Short range models have this are of precip decreasing later this
morning, but more showers will move up from the south later this
afternoon. Kept that trend going in the grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Precip timing and amounts continue to be the main concern for the
period.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring an active pattern
through the weekend. The surface low has started to lift
northeastward from the Lake of the Woods area into southern
Ontario, and the cold front has finally pushed through the CWA. A
weak shortwave has been bringing some elevated thunderstorms to
our far southeastern counties, and regional radar shows more
activity headed our direction from SD. Will continue to keep high
POPs going in the southeast, with lesser chances further north
where showers will be more isolated until later today. Clouds and
northeast winds will keep highs in the upper 50s and 60s with
yesterday`s hot and humid air shunted off to the southeast.

Another, stronger shortwave will begin to move into the area
tonight, with the frontal boundary lifting back north into the
forecast area. Models have MUCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg coming
back into our southeastern counties, and some isolated hail
producing storms are not out of the question. Further north and
west there will be some sustained rain along and just behind the
frontal boundary, so will continue with categorical POPs and QPF
amounts of 0.25 to over an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Sunday and Monday...With a nearly stationary front and the right
entrance region to the upper jet there will be plenty of forcing
to produce rainfall across the area. Models have been shifting the
band of highest QPF a bit further west with showers and storms a
bit more scattered in the eastern CWA on the warm side of the
frontal boundary. The front will sag back to the southeast Sunday
night and best precip chances will shift into MN. A bit of a
drying trend on Monday as high pressure moves into the area but
there could be a few lingering isolated showers. Clouds and precip
will keep temps cool with locations behind the frontal boundary
staying in the 50s for highs and 40s for lows. Some warmer temps
will be possible in the southeastern counties on Sunday as the
front lifts back into that area.

Tuesday through Friday...Axis of upper trough will still be west
of the forecast area early Tue, leading to continued shower
activity, especially valley east during the day as the trough
propagates eastward. After that the GFS and ECMWF are coming into
better agreement. Wed now looks dry as upper flow shifts to the
northwest with the better chance for showers coming Wed night into
Thu as short wave rotates through this flow. Then dry on Fri as
flow from the north brings Manitoba/Western Ontario sfc high to
the Northern Plains.

Cool temperatures under the clouds and pcpn Tue will moderate to 60
or better Wed but still remain a bit below average to close out the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 708 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

KDVL and KGFK are MVFR but the further south and east TAF sites
are IFR. There will be some slight improvement by a category later
today as drier air comes in from the north, but with more shower
and storms coming in this afternoon and overnight the categories
will drop back down again. Best chances for storms will be at KBJI
and KFAR so included VCTS mention there, and for the other
locations VCSH and -RA. Winds will be from a general northerly
direction with some variation from northwest to northeast.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...JR



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