Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271002
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SKY COVER AND RELATED TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY SEEING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND FILLING IN A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES FROM
ABOUT THE RRV TO DEVILS LAKE. THAN NAM12 AND RUC13 MODELS ARE
DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE CLEAR BAND AND USED THOSE MODELS
FOR GUIDANCE. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES AS SOME WEAK VORTICES MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA.

TODAY...LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL PROGRESS SLOWER THAN THE
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND FILL IN THE CLEAR GAP OVER
NORTHEASTERN ND BY MID MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST EAST OF
MINOT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND INTO N CNTRL MN...AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOVING EAST OF CWA BY 21Z. HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME LOW POPS AND ISOLATED SHSN FOR THIS AS WV IS SHOWING A COUPLE
OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FLUFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND RATHER
SPOTTY IN NATURE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS SAT
TRENDS DO NOT GIVE ME A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE SRN VALLEY WILL
SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN...AND IF IT REMAINS CLEAR COULD BE WARMER THAN
FCST HIGHS.

TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH AND THE DRIER
AIR SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE A
LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS CWA FROM NW TO SE AS LINGERING CLOUDS
IN THE FAR SE COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS WHEREAS
THE NW SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS THE
COLD AIRMASS DROPS INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKING SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SOLAR BUT MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO RECOVER TO ABOVE ZERO TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE EARLY HIGHS AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
KEEP SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS PRIOR TO COLDER AIR MAKING IT
TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER MT AND
DAKOTAS AND MN SHOULD SEE LIGHT NW FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP MON
NIGHT LOWS FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR BUT DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY THE LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH MON AND
TUE MORNING. THE COLD APPARENT TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WX HAZARD WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWS A DISTINCT SHIFT INTO THE EAST AT MIDWEEK
AND A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. EXPECT ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MODERATE
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WED INTO FRI...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVING IN BY THE WEEK END. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED FLURRY AT TIMES AT KBJI. KDVL IS CURRENTLY CLEAR BUT WILL
CLOUD UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT OBS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF
CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE 5000-7000 FT RANGE SO THINK VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. MVFR CIGS ARE FURTHER BEHIND
THOUGH...AND THINK ALL TAF SITES SHOULD GO DOWN IN CATEGORY BY MID
MORNING TOMORROW. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAIN WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR





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