Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Update issued for Aviation Discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No significant updates needed for this late evening.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No significant updates planned for this early evening. Band of mid
level clouds and scattered showers now moving across southern Manitoba
will spread brief periods of sprinkles or light rain showers
mainly along the northern tier counties of northeast ND and
northwest MN through the evening and overnight hours.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For tonight the forecast concern is precip chances. Short wave
moving east along the International border this aftn with a sfc
low just southwest of Williston ND. This system will move east
tonight with the surface low a tad south of due east to near Fargo
around 09z and into central MN by 12z Sun. Most of the saturation
for rainfall will remain just north of the International border
for most of the event...but some models such as ECMWF does start
moving precip area a bit south of due east into more NW MN late
tonight. Thus overall highest qpf likely nr a Brandon Manitoba to
Morris Manitoba to Roseau line. with southern edge nr a DVL-GFK-
PKD line. Good upper level divergence and 800-850 mb frontogenesis
with the system so narrow band of higher qpf certainly psbl closer
to the half inch range but most areas 0.10 to 0.25 inch.

Winds to switch to the north behind the sfc low over ern ND
overnight and this will likely drag down some MVFR cigs.

The upper level wave moving east across northern MN on Sunday
morning. The far northern Red River Valley east into the Lake of
the Woods region may see some rain Sunday morning from this
feature. Most of the area should see partly sunny to mostly cloudy
skies on low level clouds move south on the backside
of the surface low moving east through the Twin Cities area Sunday

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term period starts off with a surface high that will
move into the area on Sunday night. Have gone a bit cooler with
lows Sunday night...closer to MOS the high will be
slowing drifting through the region. Some low clouds/precip in the
north may help keep temps up a bit in that area.

Upper level ridging will then move into the region on Monday...with
light return flow at the surface making for a pleasant day. On upper wave will pass through the NE/SD and southern ND
area. Some light rain will be possible across the area...mainly in
the south. Another wave will quickly follow across the north on
Wednesday...bringing another shot of rain to that area on Wed/Wed

Another upper ridge will follow the mid week upper ridge...bringing
drier and possibly warmer temps for Thursday...and perhaps the south
Friday. Models diverge on when to bring the next upper wave through
the region...either late Friday or Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected across the central and southern FA
through the overnight hours. Otherwise expect areas of low VFR to
MVFR CIGs and very light rain to move steadily across far
northeast ND and far northwest MN into the mid morning hours...
staying mainly alg and north of the U.S. Highway 2 corridor. North
winds will increase at 10kts gusting 18kts through the forenoon on
Sunday. CIGS should lift abv VFR across northeast ND in the late
forenoon...while areas of MVFR CIGS could linger in northwest MN
into early afternoon.




LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Gust is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.