000
FXUS63 KFGF 160435
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

00Z NAM WIND VELOCITIES COMING IN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
VALLEY THAN PREV FCST INDICATED. MAKES SENSE WITH DEEP ADIABATIC
LAYER AND SOME COOL ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH. INCREASED WINDS
FOR SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN SITES. NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
1 AM CDT UPDATE PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL SASK...ALONG WITH
SOME WEAKLY NEG SHOWALTERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS LONG INTL BORDER. HAVE SEEN
SOME LIGHTING OUT OF ONE STORM JUST EAST OF HALLOCK AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL TSTMS MOVING EAST ALONG HWY 2 BETWEEN MINOT AND
RUGBY...SO HAVE ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
LATEST SREF SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY THROUGH 06Z...SO STILL THINK
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFT MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT GRIDS
DRY. WILL NEED TO EXTEND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH A BIT
FURTHER INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MAIN JET IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SASK AND IS MOVING EAST INTO
MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS REFLECTED OVER SRN PART OF CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WY/SD. THUS...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE FA ATTM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING OVER THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PART
OF MANITOBA. EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE FA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ALOFT AND PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECT STACKED LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING FA IN RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM SLIM. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS REGION STARTS GETTING INTO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SW
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DROP IN FROM CANADA LATE
TOMORROW MORNING FOR DVL/GFK AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TVF/BJI. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING TO GO WITH PREDOMINANT GROUPS...SO
ADDED VCNTY SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. ADDED VCNTY TSTMS FOR BJI AS I
EXPECT THIS AREA TO SEE THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDS. NW WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AROUND 17/0200Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER