Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211125
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES THIS WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP CHANCES. CONFIDENCE WITH CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND IS NOT
HIGH...UNTIL MODELS CAN RESOLVE MESOSCALE DETAILS.

FOR TODAY...A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH A DRY COLUMN
AND SUBSIDENCE. THERMAL FIELDS WILL COOL FROM YESTERDAY SOME...SO
IT WON/T BE AS WARM. TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM TO AROUND 70 ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY TO THE MID 60S IN THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND
CONFLUENT FLOW. IT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN INTO THE FAR SW FA
LATE. THERE COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS HERE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS.

FOR SAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH MID LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THE THREAT FOR SOME CONVECTION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. EVEN THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF ANY CONVECTION THOUGH...AND MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH. STILL NOT CONVINCED MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THOUGH GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT...CONFLUENT FLOW AND SLOW EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE MILD THOUGH WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM TEMPS
ALOFT.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
REGARDING UPPER PATTERN WITH NORTHERN PLAINS PROTECTIVE RIDGE
SLIDING TO THE EAST AS GREAT BASIN TROUGH MAKES SOME PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE MAINLY CONSIST
OF NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN SHIELD...GFS STILL FARTHEST NORTH ON
SUNDAY INTO CENTRAL CWA...JOINED ON MEMORIAL DAY BY THE ECMWF.
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A SCATTERED RW SITUATION WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TRW. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TUE/WED BUT
LEFT ALLBLEND POPS UNTOUCHED AT THIS POINT. ZONAL TO NW FLOW
SIGNAL RETURNS TOWARD END OF PERIOD...REFLECTED IN A 10 DEGREE
DROP IN MAX TEMP BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NW WINDS AT OR UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE LIGHT
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...DK



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