Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NO CHANGE FROM MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE OF NOTE TODAY IS SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THRU FAR EASTERN MANITOBA CURRENTLY. SCATTERED STORMS
NOTED WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP SSE THRU INL THEN TOWARD MSP
TODAY. IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE ERN/SE FCST AREA. NEW
DAY 1 SPC HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK A TAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE THE AREAS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO WAPHETON IN MARGINAL RISK
OF SVR. THINK THAT IS REASONABLE AS COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED.
CAPES BRIEFLY GET INTO THE 2000 J/KG RANGE ERN FCST AREA 18Z-21Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN SE SASK WILL DROP INTO
CNTRL ND TODAY. AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED T-STORM IS PSBL WITH MAX
HEATING SOMEWHERE IN SCNTRL ND INTO SD....MAYBE AFFECTING FAR SW
FCST AREA...BUT FEEL AFTER COLLAB WITH BIS/ABR RISK IS 10 PCT OR
LOWER AND WILL NOT MENTION. HIGH BASED SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES IN
NRN SASK WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THICKEST IN CNTRL ND AS
UPPER FLOW MORE NNW. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
AS THE UPPER WAVE GOES TO OUR EAST INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE INTO SRN SASK/WRN ND
TUESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY BRUSH FAR WRN/SW FCST AREA
AND WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS MAINLY TUES MIDDAY-AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

WRN/SW FCST AREA TO REMAIN NEAR A ZONE WHERE SHORT WAVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL TRAVEL AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP AMTS FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS AND ALSO KEEPS BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP MORE CNTRL ND.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL SEE THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE
AREA. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WAVE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...ALONG
WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.