Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290855
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY...THE CHALLENGE WILL FOCUS ON PRECIP
CHANCES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE
A BLEND FOR DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AROUND THE REGION...EXTENDING WELL INTO CANADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE SFC-850MB LAYER...AND
VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. THE FLOW WITHIN THIS NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECASTED MAX TEMPS (MID TO
UPPER 50S) ASSUME SOME SOLAR BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT IF THE CLOUDS
HANG ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED MAX TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED.
THERE REMAINS PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE UNTIL MID-MORNING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER/SFC LOW WILL PROPGATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
DRY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN FA. A STRONG
850MB JET SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SFC LOW. INSTABIITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF THE SFC BASED
INSTABILITY...AND CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE HERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC RIDGING IN BETWEEN UPPER
SHORTWAVES SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD SOLID INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE. FOLLOWED THE RAP/HRRR FOR GUIDANCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG



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