Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Rain intensity weakening and moving east a little quicker.
Adjusted pops accordingly with no other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 937 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Rain band oriented nicely with band of mid level frontogenetic
forcing from near Fargo to the twin cities. The F-gen maxima
beginning to shift SE into west central/central Mn so expect rain
to gradually weaken as it shifts eastward. Again only made some
minor timing adjustments to pops with remainder of the forecast

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No surprises so far with rain band focused near zone of warm
advection/mid level frontogenetic forcing. Made some minor pop
adjustments and will likely be doing adjusting through the
evening updates as band lifts NE.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main challenges will be timing and amount of rain tonight and
tomorrow as warm advection showers continue over southeastern ND
and have lifted north as far as Fargo to Cooperstown as well as
into west central Minnesota. Continue to see some sparse lightning
strikes west of the James Valley with SPC MU CAPE bringing some
weak instability into SE ND, fairly well aligned with modest H700
frontogenetic forcing depicted on the 12Z GFS, have included a
mention of isolated thunder across Ransom/Sargent/Richland
counties in the late afternoon to early evening hours.

Later tonight, GFS weakens the H700 FG band as it shifts into w
central MN, thus majority of overnight period will be light to
moderate rain showers with the heaviest showers along and south of
Interstate 94. The targeted area for the highest rain showers
continues to be southern Minnesota with up to an inch or slightly
higher amounts in the far south....with a quick gradient to less
than one quarter of an inch north of Hwy 200. SREF/GFS and
CONSHORT models are in general agreement with band of precip
expanding across most of eastern ND in the 21Z to 00Z timeframe as
weak mid level warm advection increases northward into NW
Minnesota (GFS showing the strongest WAA will be just south of the
far southern valley in NE SD into SW MN). Band of showers then
expands into southern Manitoba ahead of inverted trough, with sfc
front and highest rainfall amounts across southern MN.

Tomorrow, model guidance shows gradual advection of band of
showers moving east of region by 21Z however some lingering
showers will continue in the far east through the early evening.
Daytime highs will increase into the mid 50s, about 6 to 8 deg
warmer than today, west of the valley while clouds and precip should
bring cooler temperatures to the valley and eastern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Wednesday Night and Thursday...Lingering damp conditions early
Wednesday should push out of northwest MN during the evening a secondary shortwave trof dashes across the area.
Depending on cloud cover... lows could drop from the low 30s in
eastern ND into the mid to upper 30s in MN Lakes Country. Thursday
should see generally dry conditions with partly cloudy skies and
seasonably mild temperatures.

Fast moving weather systems will be the rule through the late week
period and weekend. A warm, dry and southerly flow pattern on Friday
should turn cloudy, cool and damp by Saturday... as model guidance
comes closer into agreement. For now, Sunday looks to be continue
somewhat cool with a drier shortwave H5 ridging
passes quickly over the area.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...will likley continue the unsettled
trend as a broad H5 trof is expected to spread across the western
half of the U.S. and keep the Northern Plains region in an overall
unstable flow pattern loft. In general, temperatures should average
just a bit above long term normals while precipitation trends
somewhat above normal as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Cigs still expected to drop to mvfr/ifr range from west to east as
rain shifts east. Guidance not very excited about thick fog so
left out of forecast but will need to monitor. Low cigs to persist
through tomorrow morning.




SHORT TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Voelker is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.