Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
934 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Latest webcams and METARs continue to show areas of dense fog
across the advisory area. Webcams do show some improvement across
some of the counties, notably Beltrami, but with the size of these
counties and sparse data sources, will continue advisory in ALL
areas through 17Z. Do see a potential for expanding the end across
portions of northeast ND where temps have been just above freezing
and some snow melt will add to the low level moisture. Will
assess that further at 11 AM CDT. Also added a mention of drizzle
along intl border per latest radar, although have not had any
ground truth.

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Dense fog continues over portions of the FA, mainly north of
highway 200. It did expand down into Barnes County, so did expand
the advisory a little further southward there. Also the fog seems
to have stayed out of the FA west of Devils Lake, so removed
Benson and Eddy counties from the advisory. Will be monitoring
this closely this morning, and will adjust it as need be. In the
last hour, the fog has moved into Baudette and Bemidji, so may
have to expand it further east too.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Fog and cloud cover continue to be the main forecast challenges,
which in turn, greatly affect temps. As of early this morning,
dense fog was mainly located along and north of highway 2. It has
still not reached areas west and north of Devils Lake, or the
Grand Forks area proper. Cirrus is moving over the FA now and is
restricting the ability to see most of the low clouds, so not able
to get a good look at the fog. However, previous shift issued a
dense fog advisory for this area, and it seems to be working out
for the most part. Models show this area being slow to improve
today, ever so slowly lifting it NNW. However, it does linger it
for most of the day, so if this holds true it will hold temps down
over northeast ND into far northwest MN. However, all it takes is
a few hours of sun and temps respond quickly. Fog and low clouds
are not as extensive across the southern half of the FA, but they
too will bearing watching. Models show this half of the FA seeing
more sun today, and thus, warmer temps. Looking ahead into
tonight, sfc winds remain very light. Some of the models are
showing stratus redevelopment over northeast ND. However,
confidence that far out is low so will not mention.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Not a whole lot of change in the overall pattern into mid week.
The sfc flow remains fairly light, so fog could be an issue at
times. Any fog or low clouds will continue to affect temps, both
at night and during the day. Kept any mention of pcpn out of the
forecast.

Low impact weather expected for the end of the work week and through
the weekend. Upper level split flow pattern continues with our area
remaining under the northern stream while several upper lows move
through the southern stream across the central and southern CONUS. A
few shortwaves look to pass through the northern stream bringing
some minor chances for precipitation, the first to end the work week
on Friday and possibly another late in the weekend. Any
precipitation looks to be pretty light and mostly rain (maybe some
rain/snow mix for a few hours depending on timing).

Thermal profiles continue to remain pretty consistent throughout the
period with no major swings in temperatures expected. Above normal
readings with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

How fast the low clouds and fog clear out of the TAFs will be the
main issue for the 12z set of TAFs. Dense fog has settled in at
every TAF site but KDVL, which has now improved. Model guidance
shows things improving slowly this morning, with the best chances
of early clearing being at KFAR and KBJI. The fog should clear out
of the other sites by mid to late morning, but an area of stratus
may remain over northeast ND during the day, and expand backward
again tonight. Since winds remain fairly light today into tonight,
this is a distinct possibility. Like the past several days, there
will be a lot of adjustment as trends become more clear.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NDZ006>008-015-016-
     026>030-038-039-054.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Lee
AVIATION...Godon


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