Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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116
FXUS63 KFGF 251138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Only minor tweaks to PoP grids to better reflect current radar
mosaic. Otherwise, no other updates needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The first challenge for today will be timing the final wave of
precipitation swinging around the back side of an upper low progged
to pass through the region. Short term/hi-res models are doing a
decent job capturing the current precipitation picture although
maybe a bit overdone in intensity. They are in good agreement with
precipitation moving into the Devils Lake basin around 10z and
slowly lifting north and east throughout the day. Therefore,
continued with the highest PoPs across the northern third of the
forecast area with decreasing chances further south.

Additionally, surface low pressure centered across southern Manitoba
will pull a weak cold front across the area today. Winds will switch
around to the northwest this morning/early afternoon as the surface
low moves off to the east. With high pressure then building into the
High Plains, a fairly tight pressure gradient will set up across the
area. Model soundings depict decent mixing throughout the afternoon
with 925 mb winds approaching 40 kts across the Devils Lake basin.
The majority of guidance continues to keep surface winds just below
advisory criteria so will forgo any headlines and let the day shift
reassess if observations start picking up earlier/higher than
forecast.

The breezy northwesterly flow will keep high temperatures quite a
bit cooler than Saturday with readings generally in the upper 50s
and low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Monday through Tuesday night...As the upper low pulls away from
the area Sunday night, surface high pressure will develop across
the central CONUS with the main ridge axis expected to slowly move
across the area. Some lingering precipitation chances will persist
through early Monday across the far east before dry conditions
return and last through midweek. Plenty of sunshine will allow
high temperatures to gradually warm back to above normal values in
the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds should stay up enough under
mostly clear skies to keep low temperatures in the 40s, except
for Monday night which will see the lightest winds and
temperatures possibly dropping into the upper 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Upper level pattern is mildly
progressive through the period. Long wave ridge over the northern
Rockies will shift to the Great Lakes/southeast Canada by the end
of the period. Long wave trough over the eastern Pacific will
shift to the west coast.

The ECMWF was farther north and a little slower than the GFS. Both
the ECMWF and the GFS were trending slower over the last couple
model runs. Will blend the models. No significant weather system
expected through the period. Perhaps a short wave may move through
by next Sun.

Little change to high temperatures for Wed-Sat from yesterdays
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

MVFR/IFR ceilings and rain showers were around the periphery of the
forecast area (including KDVL and KBJI) with VFR conditions
sandwiched in between. These showers and associated ceilings with
gradually move from west to east throughout the period and affect
all sites at some point throughout the day.

Additionally, a cold front was situated just west of the Red River
Valley at 12z. Winds behind this feature (KDVL) have already
switched to the northwest with frontal passage expected at KGFK/KFAR
by 17z and KTVF/KBJI by 19z. A tight pressure gradient across
eastern North Dakota will bring winds of 20-25 kts/gusts to 35 kts
to KDVL and 15-20 kts/gusts to 30 kts to KFAR and KGFK while
slightly less east of the valley. Gusts will subside this evening
with sustained northwest winds of 10-15 kts continuing.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee/Hoppes
AVIATION...Lee



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