Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250446
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

CONTINUING TO MONITOR TRACK OF SFC LOW THIS EVENING. 0430Z SFC LOW
IS SOUTH OF LANGDON MOVING TOWARD GRAFTON AS EXPECTED. WRAPAROUND
AREA OF SNOW BOTTINEAU INTO DEVILS LAKE NOW. TEMPS HOWEVER IN DVL
STILL ABV 32F SO LIMITING ACCUMS. BUT UPSTREAM WEBCAMS SHOWS SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS AND WITH SNOW FALLING AT NIGHT EXPECT THE IDEA OF 1-2
INCHES OF WET SNOW MOSTLY ON GRASSY SURFACES TO REMAIN REASONABLE.
A BAND OF PRECIP IS WRAPPING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW TOWARD
GRAND FORKS THEN BACK TOWARD JAMESTOWN. MOST OBS INDICATE -SN BUT
TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH IN GFK/FAR FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT FIRST.
AS SFC LOW MOVES MAIN MATCH OF WET SNOW TO IMPACT NRN AREAS AS
FORECAST. MAIN BRUNT OF THE WINDS DONT REALLY GET GOING TIL JUST
PAST SUNRISE AS MIXING GETS A BIT BETTER. PEAK WINDS AT 925 MB
LAYER 15Z-18Z AT NR 45 KTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN AMOUNTS/PCPN TYPE AND THEN
WIND SPEEDS ON WED. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT SO FAR SO CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT/WED NOT
VERY HIGH. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL SOME HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS FROM WADENA TO KBJI TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. TEMPS
IN THOSE AREAS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. STILL COOLEST IN THE FAR
NW AND S. SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL ND WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS ACROSS THE
FA. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...NOT MUCH LEFT OVER NORTHEAST ND AND NOT
MUCH REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. MODELS LIFT THE
SFC LOW INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z WED SO MOST OF
THE FA WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT THRU THEN. 12Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS STILL TRY TO JOIN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BAND WITH THE
NORTHEAST ND BAND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WITH THAT. THINKING THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
BAND MAY STAY THERE AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MN TONIGHT...BUT IT
MAY BE MORE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST. THEREFORE
MOST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 12Z WED...925MB
TEMPS DROP ACROSS THE FAR NW FA...OR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KDVL
TO LANGDON. THIS WOULD BE THE 6 HR PERIOD FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. HOWEVER IT IS WRAPAROUND PCPN SO AM NOT REALLY
CONVINCED MUCH WILL ADD UP. CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA ROBBING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE THERE. WITH MY
6 HOUR SNOW POTENTIAL WINDOW...GETTING MORE LIKE AN INCH OR INCH
AND A HALF OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS THE LANGDON TO CANDO CORRIDOR
AND THEN MAINLY CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

BY 09Z OR SO THE STRONGER NNW WINDS WILL START TO COME INTO PLAY
NW OF KDVL TOO. COULD GET A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AND WIND IN
CONJUNCTION UNLESS CURRENT PCPN FORECAST IS OVERDONE. GOING TO
NEED FALLING SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO CAUSE
ANY REDUCED VSBYS UP IN THAT AREA. HAD CONSIDERED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TOWNER AND CAVALIER COUNTIES...BUT JUST NOT CONVINCED
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW. IF STRONGER WINDS TAKE UNTIL 12Z TO GET
GOING THE WINDOW OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD NOT BE THERE EITHER. LATER
SHIFTS CAN KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND ADJUST IF NEED BE. WINDS STAY
PRETTY STRONG FOR MOST OF WED...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED FOR AREAS AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ONE IF THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKELY. DO NOT WANT TO HANDCUFF THEM AT THIS POINT IF A WINTER
HEADLINE IS NEEDED EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW END LATER WED INTO WED EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LEFT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRI...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT START TO DIFFER
QUICKLY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GEM AND GFS HAD
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE WAVE AND KEPT US DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS
STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY. ONE THING THAT IS
CERTAIN WILL BE WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE SHOULD GET A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN IF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
RETURNS FOR MONDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE START OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND
FAIRLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

TOUGH FCST. IFR CIGS MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD THRU MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY 20 TO 35 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS IN ERN ND/RRV. IFR CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS WED MIDDAY-AFTN BUT UNSURE OF TIMING. VSBYS
LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT TIMES
DVL/GFK/TVF AND EVENTUALLY BJI AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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