Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200454
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1154 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

No changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Dry easterly flow will continue tonight and stop any north
advancement of light rain into our forecast area until near
11-12z. The timing of light rain moving north will need to be
watched for adjustments. But often models overdo rainfall
spreading north in dry flow out of a high. Will likely have a
longer period of virga or rain on radar but not at the ground on
the leading edge. High clouds tonight, thinnest in the far north,
where lows in the mid to upr 30s psbl. Patchy frost was mentioned
in far NW fcst area.

Saturday will see rain advance north...reaching the far northern
areas toward 00z. Temperatures a challenge as areas in rain more
of the day will stay in the 40s vs warmer mid 50s in non-rain
areas with some low 60s in far NW fcst area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper low to move into central Minnesota Saturday night. ECMWF
continues to be the most wet but will side with a bit drier soln
as deeper moisture from this system will be cut off due to tstms
in the ohio valley. Light rain/sprinkles/clouds to continue into
Sunday for most. Clouds and lingering very light precip at times
into Sun night and Monday.

Monday Night through next Friday...
Rain chances will come to an end after Monday night as the upper
trough swings through the region. Drier air will then move into
the region for Tuesday...with highs rebounding a bit in most
areas. The warm up will continue through Wednesday and likely into
Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the area. The new ECMWF is
trying to bring a strong upper low through the region by as early
as Thursday, which would result in a much cooler and wetter
Thursday compared to its 00Z run and the 12Z GFS. Will need to
watch for future trends on this late week system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

All sites are VFR with cirrus moving across the area, and should
remain so through the rest of the night into tomorrow morning.
Models have been slower with bringing in rain and lower ceilings
tomorrow, but still have KFAR seeing some showers and cloud decks
dropping to the 3000-6000 ft range by mid day into early afternoon,
with the rain and clouds spreading northward during the
afternoon and evening. Have KFAR going down to MVFR later in the
period, but keep the other TAF sites mostly VFR. Winds will be
from the east at 8 to 12 kts for the most part.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Riddle
AVIATION...JR



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