Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1239 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Gradual decrease in clouds taking place over NW MN slowly
spreading west. Also hints of thinning clouds west of the
forecast area as well. Delayed decrease in clouds but still hoping
for more late afternoon solar. With slower break in cloud cover
did lower max temperatures slightly.

UPDATE Issued at 924 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Cloud trends and temperatures will be the main challenge today.
Clear area shrinking with stratus closing in over the southern
valley up to Fargo. Will be monitoring to see how much solar can
erode the SC across the region which will impact temperatures.
Made some adjustments to cloud cover but will remain optimistic
that some erosion of clouds takes place. For now have left maximum
temperatures as is.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

There has been a little more patchy ground fog formation around
the area, but it has not lasted for very long. Gwinner dropped to
about a quarter of a mile in fog, being the lowest vsby in the
FA. However, web cams in that area do not look all that bad, so
think Gwinner should also come back up shortly. Low clouds still
encircle the FA with higher clouds spreading in over the top. Made
a few adjustments to match up with current conditions, otherwise
forecast looking good.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Cloud trends and fog will be the main forecast challenges. As of
early this morning low clouds bordered nearly all sides of the FA.
However, the low clouds do not appear to be moving all that much
yet. The clear skies over the Red River Valley have also resulted
in some spotty fog at Fargo. Unless more sites start to report
fog, will leave it out of the morning forecast. The clouds will
also play somewhat into the temperature forecast, but really do
not have a good feel for how the low clouds will evolve today.
However, there are also higher level clouds moving in from the
west, so a mix of sun and clouds is likely today. 850mb temps
rise a few degrees today, but the south winds expected are not
all that favorable for warming. The south winds will also become a
little gusty by afternoon. The sfc pattern continues to look weak
again tonight, so will have the same challenges then too.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The overall weak surface pattern continues into the weekend and
early next week. The next chance of pcpn arrives across the
western FA late Saturday night, and looks minimal if anything at
all. Some of this light pcpn remains possible into Sunday
morning, then dry again for Sunday night through Monday night.

A quiet and seasonably mild stretch remains in store for a good part
of the upcoming week. The upper air pattern still depicts a well
defined split flow with southern branch showing most of the action
as low closes off vcnty southern plains on Wed and heads toward
lower MS valley Thu. Meanwhile a weak shortwave will transit the
northern plains during the mid week period where we`ve kept chc pops
(with some lkly over dvl region) in form of overnight wintry mix
and daytime rain. Temps will feature highs from the mid 40s to mid
50s with lows near or a shade above freezing.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Cigs have sct out over portions of NW Mn to include BJI and
approaching FAR and TVF. Remainder of FA MVFR cigs with IFR over
DVL. Feel cigs will continue to lift remainder of the afternoon
becoming VFR by evening. Guidance however brings MVFR cigs back
into the region later tonight.




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