000
FXUS63 KFGF 112332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EAST ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WIND REGION WIDE. FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VERY WEAK MIXING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS STATED
IN EARLIER AFD...EXPECT MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO UPSTREAM VALUES LAST
NIGHT UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF
FROST. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT QUITE STARTED YET SO NO FROST
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED (BUT WILL MENTION IN THE GRIDS AND HWO). ON
SUNDAY...WEAK MIXING BUT FULL SOLAR AND A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS.
CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO RECOVER AFTER
A VERY COLD START (THINKING MOSTLY 50S UP TO 60F). MIN TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT WARM FRONT KICKS IN. THE FAR EASTERN FA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
THE LONGEST...AND AGAIN COULD BE BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AND VERY STRONG 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SHOWERS. VERY WARM AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXACT SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY (WITH LOW 80S TO THE WEST AND AROUND 60F TO
THE EAST). AFTER MONDAY...THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION IS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION. CONSIDERING ZONAL FLOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE
FASTER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM
REMAINS IN CANADA...BUT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. THE SLOWER/STRONGER MODEL
SOLUTIONS (GFS/GEM) INDICATE HIGH WIND WARNING POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE FASTER/WEAKER SOLUTIONS (ECMWF/NAM) ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY YET.

FOR TUE NIGHT THRU THURSDAY THE FIRST SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE
PUSHED EAST OF THE FA WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD. BY FRI INTO SAT THE 500MB
FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST GIVING A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN. TIMING CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS FAR OUT IS TOUGH BUT IT
SEEMS MODELS SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER SIGNAL ON SAT AS COMPARED TO
FRI. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD IT MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH EAST OF THE RIVER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. VFR ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ALONG THE RED RIVER. POINTS
ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AS WELL AS THE ND AND MN TRIBUTARIES
CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
HYDROLOGY...JK