Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RAIN REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR S-SE FA. BAND HAS MOVED LITTLE
AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOLD PCPN IN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPPED POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH NOON. SOME BREAKS MOVING INTO THE
FAR NORTH HOWEVER INCREASED SKY COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE PRECIP EXTENDS FROM KELLIHER MN TO ENGLEVALE
ND. PRECIP WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. NO CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAN AND WILL
MOVE TO THE EASTERN CANADIAN COAST BY SUN. REINFORCING TROUGH OVER
SASK/MAN SAT WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY SUN. THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUN NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH FIRST SHORT WAVE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FIFTIES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER WAS AROUND 1.4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST TODAY. MOST PLACE WILL HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH BY SAT MORNING.

RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES. AREAL COVERAGE
WAS DECREASING. FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BDE TO
OAKES ND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST UNDER 10
KNOTS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

(MONDAY-THURSDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WHICH MEANS LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER RIDGING WILL
OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PLACING THIS
AREA IN SW FLOW ALOFT BY WED-THUR. CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP AT ANY
TIME GIVEN NUMEROUS UPPER WAVES EITHER ROUNDING THE RIDGE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...OR EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN COAST TROUGH LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (WED-THUR)
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DETAILS VERY
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS WERE LOCATED OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS MOSTLY AROUND 15
HUNDRED FT. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO CLEAR LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...HOPPES


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