Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250423
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1023 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Minor modifications made to sky cover and temps with this update.
Forecast looks on track.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Updated forecast based on latest conditions/trends, which included
tweaking sky a bit and low temps. Otherwise, forecast looks on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

If we get any very light precip over northwestern MN tonight will
be the main challenge for the short term.

Our shortwave trough that brought this morning`s rain has moved
off into MN, with dry conditions and clear skies over large
portions of the forecast area. Another reinforcing shortwave is
digging down out of Canada, and will bring another surge of colder
air into northwestern MN. Some of the models are bringing in some
light precip as this shortwave digs down into the CONUS, mainly
into north central MN but clipping our far northeastern counties.
Model soundings do not have much rising motion or moisture in the
good dendritic growth layer, but the is some very shallow
moisture and weak omega this evening on the KBDE model sounding.
There are a few flurries over far northern Manitoba and some very
light radar returns starting to develop north of Winnipeg but not
much ground truth. Will include some low POPs for drizzle changing
to FZDZ and then -SN for a time this evening, but am not too
crazy about us seeing much. Further south and west, some
increasing mid and high clouds and northwest winds should keep fog
from developing despite lots of melting today.

Tomorrow, conditions should be fairly quiet with northwest flow
aloft and weak surface high pressure moving east. Warm air
advection will kick in late in the day, but with a cooler air mass
to start with think we will stay in the 20s and 30s across much of
the area tomorrow, with some low 40s in the southwest where there
will be the most warm air advection and sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Rather benign weather is in store for most of the long term period,
with the best chance of precipitation being Monday night as an upper
wave moves across the region.  Light rain may turn to a wintry mix
by Tuesday morning, however warm surfaces from Monday highs in the
mid 40s will limit impacts.  Cooler temps will follow on Tuesday
however most of the area will continue to be above freezing...with
temperatures remaining above normal for the remainder of the work
week. Monday should be the warmest day next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The primary challenge with the latest TAF set is the western
extent of the stratus cloud deck through the night and how low the
cigs will be. Some of the hi-res model runs have a brief period of
mvfr cigs this evening and just after midnight at BJI/TVF/GFK.
Most model data points to a rather temporary period of MVFR cigs,
but the NAM bas low MVFR (1000-1900 ft) through most of tonight
AND tomorrow. Based on latest trends and other guidance, believe
this is overdone. Even with the deck that is moving south from
Canada and Lake of the Woods region, its hard to find MVFR cigs.
Believe some lowering is possible as the high pushes southeast,
however.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Knutsvig



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