Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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054 FXUS63 KFGF 061510 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1010 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southeast winds today and tonight across eastern North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota, with gusts up to 50 mph at times. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the region through Wednesday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Winds are starting to increase over 30 mph in some locations, timing nicely with the expected start time of advisory-level winds. Previous discussion and update topics remain valid. Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Showers are advecting northward into central North Dakota on the nose of the 850mb jet, as expected, and winds are increasing. Still expecting the area of showers/thunder to gradually work east as the low pressure across the western Dakotas slowly propagates north and east advancing the strong low level moisture transport into our region. Predictability and scenarios discussed within the 3am discussion still valid. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...Synopsis... Water vapor imagery indicates an upper trough across the Rockies slowly propagating east. Ensemble guidance in good agreement with an upper low developing across western North Dakota over the next couple days, and then mid to late week propagating south and then east, with ridging building into the region while that takes place. There is some uncertainty with how the upper low will eventually eject eastward, but these differences do not bring many different scenarios for our region. For Friday and beyond confidence is very low, although temperatures will be around normal values. ...Strong winds today and tonight... For the southwestern two-thirds of the CWA, surface pressure gradient increases by this afternoon along with winds aloft. Model soundings indicate mixing up to around 900mb, with winds near 40 knots at the top of the mixed layer - supportive of wind advisory criteria (30 mph sustained with gusts over 45 mph). There is a very low probability scenario of gusts up to 60 mph that exists given winds near 850mb around 50-55 knots, which would happen if mixing is deeper than anticipated. For this to happen surface temperatures would need to be mid to upper 70s. ...Showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday... Strong 850mb jet will bring moisture and weak instability northward along with associated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight, with the band of activity slowly propagating northward overnight. This afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability across southeast North Dakota, a couple stronger elevated storms may exist given stronger deep layer shear. Tuesday early afternoon...will need to monitor afternoon instability across a narrow band from Bemidji to the northwest. Deep layer shear will be very strong (near 50 knots) when CAM solutions indicate storms, and if instability is strong enough a few stronger storms would exist. Not expecting a severe weather outbreak or anything like that, but would not be surprised if we get a marginal severe thunderstorm report or two. Rainfall will be more hit and miss with this system - generally 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with isolated amounts up to an inch or two. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Main aviation concern today will be the gusty winds. Otherwise, expect MVFR cigs to gradually move into the region overnight, along with showers. Thunder is possible overnight, but chances too low at this time to include in TAF. Low level wind shear may also be a concern, and thinking confidence in this hazard one way or another will increase by next TAF issuance. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-027- 029>031-040. && $$ UPDATE...TG/CJ DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...TG