Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 131747
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR...STRATUS
DECK. STEADY TEMPS ONCE CLOUDS AND 20KT NW WINDS ARRIVE WITH ISO
SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTH THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ONT/MAN BORDER WILL HAVE
VORTICITY LOBES ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. ONE LOBE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR TO
FOLLOW SUN NIGHT. ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND WAS BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST. UPPER AIR PATTERN
BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST BY 84 HOURS. GFS, ECMWF AND NAM WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE NAM SLIGHTLY FASTER AND THE GFS SLOWER. WILL USE THE
GFS AND ECMWF.

CLOUDS OVER MAN WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL GO
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY.

AREA RADARS SHOWING FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MAN. WILL ADD IN LOW
POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES. TWEAKED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH
LITTLE CHANGE. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHEAST ZONES EARLY
THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

QUIET MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA WEDNESDAY SLOWLY
SLIDING EAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT 500 MB TROUGH ENTERING THE
NRN ROCKIES.  TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS A BIT SLOWER THAN
GFS/ECMWF WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THUS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
HOLD OFF TIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  GFS HAS REMAINED THE
STRONGEST WITH MOST PRECIP WITH WAVE VS A BIT WEAKER ECMWF.  TEMPS
TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

LARGE AREA OF PREDOMINANTLY VFR CLOUDS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND EMBEDDED
-RASH WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW. CU FIELD FORMING AND EXPECTED TO
SOLIDIFY TO VFR CIGS. LEADING EDGE STRATO-CU FIELD DROPPING SOUTH
AROUND 20KTS WILL BE ALONG A BJI/GFK/KD97 LINE BY 20Z. MODELS
SUGGEST SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE IMPEDED BY DAYTIME HEATING.
MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 25 KTS
SOUTH...DIMINISHING AFT 02Z. ISOLD -RASH FCST TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER 06Z WITH BEST CHANCE EAST RRV.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...EWENS







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