Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221737
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

No changes to the forecast thoughts across our region for today.
Cloudy day with nearly steady temperatures and no impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Upper level low pressure system was over KS and will affect areas
south of us. Split flow was over North America with southern
stream over the southern states and northern stream over southern
Canada and the northern states. KS upper level low will produce
north or northeast winds today and tonight across much of the Red
River Valley. Short wavelength upper ridge from MT to SASK will
move into the the area this afternoon and tonight. Return flow
will occur over the Devils Lake basin and will shift into eastern
ND tonight. Low level convergent flow will occur over the area
today. Low level moist layer was relatively shallow and so will
leave flurries/light freezing drizzle out of the forecast for
today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

500 mb short wave trough will move east-southeast into eastern ND
and northwestern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Initially
airmass is quite dry, but as it moves east there is increased
moisture near 850 mb.  Thus there is a hint on most models of a
little light precip with this feature.  It would appear to be more
flurries than anything and superblend gave sub 15 pops and after
coord with ABR/BIS left it that way and thus kept fcst dry.  After
this system 500 mb ridge builds into Montana and spreads east into
the northern Plains Thursday as warmer air at 850 mb moves in.  How
much is realized at the surface in terms of warming is questionable
due to anticipated clouds.

Main question in the long term is precip chances Fri-Sat as several
disorganized 500 mb short waves move northeast into the area and
then develop a better 500 mb trough in S Manitoba/NW Ontario.  Not a
lot of moisture available with this system and most of it is when
the 500 mb trough is stronger north of the International border.
Thus the low chance pops given by model blended solns appear
reasonable. Overall a light precipitation event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain across the region through this forecast
period. North winds will gradually diminish this evening become
light and variable. Cigs should lower a bit during the overnight
period (although not sure how low). Probability for fog formation
is very low according to most guidance.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...TG



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