Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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849
FXUS63 KFGF 131526
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH VALUES WARMING UP
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN SNOW POTENTIAL HOWEVER
TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH BEST SNOW POTENTIAL.

WINDS PRETTY MUCH CALM OR BLO 5KTS ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN WCHILL HEADLINES FOR NOW. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION MOST AREAS BY
18Z. WILL ALSO SEE CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP WITH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AFTER COLD START. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS...POSSIBLE LOW TEENS OVER THE FAR WEST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOW TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. AS
STATED ABOVE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MAIN SNOW BAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS NOW BRINGING -SN INTO
THE FAR WEST CLOSER TO 00Z AND INTO THE VALLEY 03-06 TIMEFRAME.
06Z NAM CLIPS THE FAR SW WITH FAVORED MID-UPPER LEVEL QG-FGEN
SUPPORT. CURRENT SNOW ESTIMATES AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE FAR SW-S SO
WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. WITHIN VALLEY GUIDANCE HAS
LOWERED WINDS SPEEDS SLIGHTLY...AROUND 20KTS SO NOT CONFIDENT ON
THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH WIND AND FALLING SNOW.
WITH UNCERTAINTY HELD OFF ON ADVISORY WITHIN VALLEY BUT BASED ON
TIMING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO MAKE FINAL
DECISION.

-SN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE VALLEY. WITH CLOUDS/WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES NOT NEARLY AS COLD. WITH WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW MID LEVEL FLOW
RELAXES. A WEAK WAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR SW WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT AT THIS
POINT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINIMAL.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN ON TUES...ALTHOUGH THE SFC
HIGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST...SO COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BY WED. 00Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP LIGHT SNOW
ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA TUES/TUES
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE WEEK...AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEK...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF SFC/UPPER
AIR FEATURES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER
THIS EVENING AS -SN MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
LOWEST CIGS/VSBY WILL BE FROM THE VALLEY WEST TO INCLUDE
FAR/GFK/DVL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NDZ038-049-052-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ029-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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