264
FXUS63 KFGF 291745
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple systems will bring periods of rain to the region
  today through the entire week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Upper system continues to rotate over the forecast area, with
scattered showers, drizzle, and some mist continuing over the
forecast area. Most of the snow seems to have ended. The cloud
cover and precipitation have kept temperatures cooler, so
lowered highs just a bit into the mid 40s, but not a huge change
from our overall messaging for a cool, rainy Monday.

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Still getting a few reports of light snow across our northern
counties, and some snow showing up in the grassy areas on the
web cams. However, no impacts as surface temperatures have
remained warm and even elevated surfaces have melted off. There
has been some more rain moving into west central MN with the
secondary shortwave. In between the northern and southern areas
of precip, there continues to be some drizzle and light BR at
many locations. Bumped up POPs a bit and included drizzle
mention as the double upper low kicks out of the CWA throughout
the day today.

UPDATE
Issued at 554 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The first band of rain is starting to push north of the highway
2 corridor. Webcams and surface observations show some wet snow
mixing in mainly from Langdon to Cando to Rugby. A few other
observation points, like Bemidji, have also briefly reported a
mix, but that has been about it. Otherwise the second band has
been moving into the southern Red River Valley and adjacent
areas of west central Minnesota, but it has been weakening as it
lifts north. Think it will maintain itself into the day, but
mainly along and east of the Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The regional radar loop shows the first band of rainfall lifting
north-northwest through the FA, but mainly north of the highway
200 corridor. Then there is a second little area approaching the
southern FA. In between these two areas, there is a break. The
first band has been pretty slow moving north, with precipitation
amounts slightly lower than anticipated. As of early this
morning, there still hasn`t been any rain yet along the
Canadian border, possibly due to the drier east-northeast flow
(there is still at least a 10 degree temperature/dewpoint
spread across southwest Ontario). Therefore, there is still not
even a ceiling below 12,000 feet showing up around the Lake of
the Woods region. The highest precipitation totals have been
over west central Minnesota, where between 0.50 and 0.75 inches
have fallen.

Some light precipitation should eventually move into the Lake of
the Woods region, and there is still a potential for a little
wet snow to mix in for areas along and north of highway 2. The
precipitation is not steady enough to produce much for snow
accumulation. With road temperatures mild, no impacts are
expected even it does produce a dusting of snow. So the first
band of precipitation along and north of highway 2 will
continue to push out of the FA and into southern Canada after
sunrise, while the area just to the south of the FA will pivot
up into the FA and continue mainly east of the Red River Valley,
before diminishing by later afternoon.

Brief 500mb ridging moves in tonight, which will provide a
short window with no rain. Then the next wave will eject
eastward through the FA mainly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. The best moisture and instability seem to be just to the
south of this FA, closer to the surface low that looks to set up
from southeast South Dakota into southern Minnesota. For this
FA, another round of rainfall is anticipated, with the NBM
showing around a 70 percent probability for amounts greater than
a quarter of inch. Some higher amounts are possible, with
probabilities for over a half inch around 50 percent, mainly
along and east of the Valley. These ranges seem to match pretty
well with the past couple of events. More energy ejects out of
the Central Plains into the Northern Plains Thursday through
Friday, bringing another widespread wetting rain. There is more
uncertainty with this round, so the NBM probabilities seem
pretty low yet. However, amounts could again be similar to what
the area has been getting (good chance of a quarter of an inch,
with higher amounts possible). The uncertainty continues into
the upcoming weekend, but chances for rain continue, and if it
stays cloudy, it would continue to be cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mix of MVFR to IFR conditions as light rain and drizzle along
with some light mist continues over the forecast area. Some
models indicate some fog developing later tonight, but
confidence is not high as the upper system pulls away and it
does not seem like we will get much clearing even with light
winds. Will keep visibility in the 3-5SM range and not go any
lower for now. Ceilings will be mostly in the MVFR to IFR range,
then improve mostly to MVFR by the end of the period. Winds
will be light and variable then pick up out of the southeast by
Tuesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...JR