Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 302007
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
307 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast challenge for the immediate short term will be timing of
convection as well as severe potential given portions of south
central and southeastern ND are in a severe thunderstorm watch.
The HRRR has performed well with band of convection initiating
along a warm front parallel to and south of Highway 2 around
Devils Lake. Will generally follow HRRR guidance through at least
03Z, at which pointmore widespread activity initiating to our west
will move into the FA.

SPC mesoanalysis currently showing a band of 1000+ J/kg MU CAPE
along and south of the Highway 2 corridor, with the most recent
update extending east of Grand Forks to near the western edge of Red
Lake county. This is also on the nose of theta e ridge extending
up from the south. HRRR has indicated this and expect an
increasing chance that new storms may develop further east along
this line.  However, any convection to the east of what is
currently on radar has very little shear, and the current storms
are barely pushing 30kts 0-6 KM bulk shear. Consequently, although
pulsey, current storms have little movement and have been short
lived. Higher shear to the west will give a better chance for
stronger or severe storms closer to peak heating in one to two
hours.

HRRR brings the more scattered to numerous activity into the Valley
City area by 00Z to 02Z timeframe and this area will have heated
out further by then as the majority of SE ND is currently clear.
Best chances for severe in our FA will likely be Valley City down
through Lisbon and west. SPC will be issuing a severe weather
watch for the majority of the CWA along and south of Highway 2.
The primary threats will be one inch or higher hail and winds of
58 knots or greater, and an isolated funnel is certainly possible
along the warm frontal boundary to the south of Highway 2.

Models indicating clearing occuring in the far west beyond 04Z, so
have began to draw in a dry slot although further redevelopment
will be back in n central and nw ND. Surface low lifts into
southern Manitoba by Tuesday morning and more showery activity
will occur across the far north but should be dry across the
southern third tier of counties. Sfc low then slowly wobbles
across southern Manitoba though the day Tuesday and Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Wednesday will be much cooler as a front moves across the region
andcyclonic flow associated with sfc low in SE MB/SW Ontario will
keepskies cloudy and a chance for scattered showers across much of
thenorthern half of the CWA. Atmosphere will begin to dry out from
westto east in the afternoon hours, however late clearing will
holddaytime highs in the upper 50s for the far northeast.

For Thursday night through Monday...Zonal flow starts out the
period, but as the ridge across the western states starts to build
the flow becomes northwest. Models show sfc low pressure dropping
thru the FA early on, bringing some chances for pcpn mainly Thu
night through Sat. Most of the Sunday and Monday time frame looks
quiet. Temps should be fairly close to normal, or a little bit above.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Ceilings are still VFR across the area with fairly light sfc winds
yet. Just starting to see some convective development southwest of
KDVL. Otherwise there is a large area of weak showers and tstms over
western ND, moving to the east. These are spreading some mid and
high level clouds into this FA. Outside of these, models are still
trying to develop stronger storms over the western Dakotas later
this afternoon, then moving them NE by late afternoon into tonight.
Confidence not great overall in regard to strength or timing, but
have tried to indicate in the TAFs what the latest guidance
proposes. As the tstms move through, ceilings or vsbys could be
lower than VFR at times, but with timing not certain will add that
later when confidence improves. There will be a dry slot moving into
the area Tuesday morning, bringing decreasing clouds and a bit
stronger SW winds.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon/Speicher
AVIATION...Godon


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