Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 201156
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

At 1130z the center of the surface low was northwest of Dickinson
ND with a 10-15kt SSE gradient flow pushing into eastern ND. KMVX
radar was indicating a SW flow of 40kts just above 1000 ft AGL.
Forecast tracking well attm. Updated Aviation Discussion added
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Large scale flow has an H5 shortwave ridge sliding into the
western Great Lakes through the day, with an H5 trof digging into
the Pacific NW... strengthening surface low pressure over the
western Dakotas in the process. For the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota we can expect a deep southerly fetch of warmer
and more humid air to stream into the area at the surface and
aloft... with well couple blayer winds gusting into the 25 to 35
mph range over much of the area by mid afternoon. Surface dewpoint
temperatures should push into the lower 50s throughout the
area... which is fairly high for this time of year. As a result,
fair skies early in the day should give way to increasing clouds
in the later afternoon and widely scattered showers over portions
of western and central MN in the late evening... perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm over the central MN Lakes district. High
temperatures today should push well into the 70s across the
area... just a few degrees shy of record high temperatures for the
day. Tonights lows should settle into the 50s... which is also
quite mild for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The extended period will be noted by a change to more seasonable
temperatures and precipitation chances with the atmospheric pattern
becoming more progressive.

Starting Saturday morning, a swift moving cold front moves west to
east through the region reaching northwestern Minnesota by early
afternoon. Attached and ahead of the front, showers will build
through the afternoon becoming more numerous into the lakes country
of Minnesota. There is some chance of thunderstorms mixing in with
shower activity east of the US 59 corridor mid to late afternoon.
Thunderstorm chances will be dependent on cloud cover, rather the
lack thereof, to increase instability. Another area of rain is
expected to move into eastern North Dakota towards Saturday
afternoon as mid level moisture and elevated front lags behind the
surface cold front. Drier air underneath this moisture will limit
rainfall amounts to around a few tenths of an inch. Areas within
northeastern and west-central Minnesota are expected to see
generally around a quarter of an inch, although potential
thunderstorms would increase amounts. High temperatures Saturday
will be closer to, but still above, normal lingering in the lower
60s.

Rain chances diminish by Saturday evening although with dry
conditions expected through Sunday morning. An upper level short
wave is expected to quickly drop into the Northern Plains from the
Canadian Rockies. This will bring shower chances back into the
forecast late Sunday through Monday. The short wave digs deep into
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley keeping the area under breezy
north/northwest flow continuing the seasonable trend in temperatures
with Monday and Tuesday`s highs remaining in the 50s. An upper ridge
then quickly moves over the area Wednesday allowing lows to dip into
the mid to lower 30s, possibly upper 20s depending on surface wind
magnitude and orientation as well as cloud cover. These same factors
will influence Wednesday`s high temperatures as well with a forecast
of upper 50s to lower 60s provided, although higher temperatures may
be realized.

A cold air mass and deepening upper level low crashes into the area
Thursday morning with a stout cold front bringing some precipitation
chances near the front and developing surface low as well as gusty
northwesterly winds behind the front. Model guidances begins to
differ somewhat on how this low matures over the region, although
Thursday and Friday is expected to be raw for lack of a better term,
especially Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Fair skies with SSE surface winds at 10-15kts and blayer flow
pushing 40kts from the SW... approx 1-2 kft AGL. Expect winds to
mix by 15z and surface winds gusting at 25-35kt through the late
forenoon and afternoon across most of the FA. Winds will taper
off slightly after sunset but remain gusty overnight. Widely
scattered showers are expected across the central MN Lakes county
from late evening into the overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...Gust


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