Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 202045
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ARRIVAL OF PCPN
FROM SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS BRINGING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
FAR-DVL AROUND 06Z. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT THAT HIGH SO JUST
MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY IN
FOG AT BJI BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



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