Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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714
FXUS63 KFGF 061018
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
418 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Main concern will be the high impact winter storm/blizzard ongoing
or developing. Incoming model guidance...including CAMS...are in
excellent agreement. Round 1...heavy snow...has unfolded as
expected. Round 2...blizzard...looks to be on track. The main
challenge will be timing and track of the sfc low and exact timing
of the stronger winds moving in from the west. Strong upper
low...and associated sfc low continues to deepen and will stall
near Hallock (northern valley)...then slowly propagate
east/southeast after 15z. The associated strong deformation zone
will become oriented north to south...and then slowly propagate
east. Already high snow ratios will become higher as a colder
airmass advects into the region. The steep mid-level lapse rates
that led to the 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates overnight no
longer exist...but given the deformation zone along with high snow
ratios should lead to at least a couple more inches of snow area
wide...and likely up to 6 or 7 more inches of snow where forcing
is strongest (near or just east of the valley?).

Anyway...blizzard/whiteout conditions the main impact today.
Strong winds combined with falling snow and what is already on the
ground will lead to whiteout conditions...especially in open
areas. Kept the same timing which still should be close...but may
adjust some minor details if/when conditions warrant.

Extended winter weather advisory to the south of the blizzard
warning with strong winds combined with falling snow leading to
some visibility issues in open areas.

Details that might change with future updates...With the surface
low stalling and propagating east a tad slower...areas near the
northern valley and adjacent portions of Minnesota may experience
a slight delay in blizzard onset. Also...current headlines expire
at 6pm which may need to be extended into the evening hours.
Last...blizzard warning may need to be extended to cover the
southern valley or Fergus Falls area if snow rates become heavy
enough that far south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 418 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Zonal flow develops with quick moving shortwaves. The strongest
model signal for accumulating snow is around the Saturday/Sunday
period...although confidence in details are low. Temperatures
definitely colder...although near normal the main highlight. With
the baroclinic zone near the region...confidence with winter
storms may be lacking until a day or two beforehand.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

IFR conditions were located over the northern three fourths of the
Red River Valley. MVFR cigs were located over the far southern
Valley. Expect IFR conditions for much of the Red River Valley for
tonight and especially for Tue with snow and blowing snow. Some MVFR
conditions can be expected in the far south zones for tonight and
IFR for Tue.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ049-
     052-053.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ008-016-
     027-029-030.

     Blizzard Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-054.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     NDZ038.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ002-003-022-
     027.

     Blizzard Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     MNZ001>004-007-008-013>015-022-027.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MNZ028>031-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ017-
     023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ005-006-
     009-016.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001-004-007-008-
     013>015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Hoppes



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