Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 060312
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1012 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE TIP OF THE FA.
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS QUITE A BIT OF THE SE FA. ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE THREAT FROM THE FAR SE. STILL SOME WEAK RETURNS LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FA SO MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS N CENTRAL MN AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SMOKE BEGINNING TO REDUCE VSBY IN THE DVL
AREA AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD.

THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL DIGGING INTO WESTERN MT BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT AS WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PICKING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IMPACTING OUR
NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO RIGHT NEAR FARGO UP INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS STILL SHOWING TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH 60S DEW POINTS...BRINGING SOME PRETTY UNSTABLE AIR OF
2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE. EFFECTIVE BULK LAYER SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED TO 40-45KTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW AS STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
OUR AREA. THE HRRR HAS STORMS NOT REDEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR 23Z...BY
WHICH POINT THE FRONT IS NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA. THINK THIS IS A
BIT TOO FAST...SO WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE CONTINUES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN THE FRONT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT...WITH WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MOSTLY
SHOWERS AS SHOWALTERS BECOME POSITIVE IN THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THINK DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS A REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. ONLY
A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING IN THE WEST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...BUT THINK THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...BUT THERE
COULD BE A RETURN TO SMOKE IN THE AIR AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET UNDER WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY AND SHOULD REACH THE 70S. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. CURRENTLY THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SFC TROUGH LOOK QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN SUNDAY`S
SYSTEM...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE
STILL FOR WEDNESDAY AND TOP OUT IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTER CONVECTION ENDS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BE DRY
AND WARMER AS OVERALL FLOW SHIFTS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
SHOULD INCREASE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY H5 FLOW ARCHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH COMMENSURATE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RISK
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONFINED T MENTION TO BJI AS REMAINDER OF TAF SITES BEHIND COLD
FRONT. K INTO THE DVL AREA AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GUST
AVIATION...VOELKER



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