Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212332
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

No changes to current forecast. Minimal impacts in the short term
other than cold frontal passage on Saturday which makes it almost
through the forecast area before hanging up along the ND/SD border.
This will set up a respectable thermal gradient from north to
south. Will also see some spotty showers behind the front Saturday
but nothing significant. With e-w stationary boundary across the
southern forecast area will see spotty showers through the weekend
north of the boundary but again should be light.

UPDATE Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Increased sky cover for cu development over the Sheyenne River
basin...no other changes at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 929 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Fog across the western zones is improving as expected...with no
METAR sites reporting less than one-half mile visibility. Due to
sparse observations however will allow headlines to expire at 10
AM rather than cancelling early...with high confidence any areas
of lower visibility will improve over the next 30 min. Clear skies
are allowing temps to rise quickly this morning and ADJLAV
guidance populated through the remainder of the morning
hours...with no changes to overall daytime highs. High pressure
over the area will keep the region dry today and tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Dense fog is holding in the advisory area with some development of
patchy fog across the remainder of the forecast area as expected.
No major changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The latest satellite imagery shows areas of dense fog have developed
in the Devils Lake basin, spreading south toward Valley City. With
the boundary layer nearly saturated, suspect patchy fog will develop
over the next few hours across much of eastern ND. With high
pressure moving through far northeast ND over the next few hours,
near calm winds will only aid fog development and duration.
Expect low temperatures this morning near to just above the
freezing mark. Surface high pressure and relatively dry air aloft
move through today, bringing a precipitation free period until
Saturday morning with light wind and little to no cloud cover.
This should allow for a pleasant, relatively warm day today for
highs reaching into the 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A surface boundary moves through from the north and sets up in the
middle of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night, bringing
chances for light precipitation. This boundary will make for a
tight temperature gradient Saturday afternoon from cool and cloudy
with highs in the 40s in the north to significantly warmer and
highs perhaps into the 60s in the south. This will fall as rain
during the daylight hours but cannot rule out some brief wintry
mix Saturday night in the north, moving into the area from Highway
2 to Interstate 94 in the hours around dawn Sunday.

As the boundary hangs around on Sunday, chances for light rain
continue through the day. The related surface low begins its
approaches from western SD Sunday night. Forcing improves with
this approach and some additional shortwave energy aloft, causing rain
chances and rain totals to increase going from Sunday night into
Monday.

Monday to Thursday night...An overall cool period with max
temperatures in the 40s and low 50s which is below end of the month
normals. Monday continues the rain chances with a widespread area of
rain expected as a SFC low traverses across SD. West central
Minnesota and northeastward across the lakes region appears to have
the best potential to receive a half to near an inch of rain.
Tuesday appears set to be the coolest day as 850mb temps drop to
near negative 5C behind Mondays departing rain system. Zonal flow
across the Pacific NW will continue to bring precipitation to the
Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall dry weather is
expected across the forecast area with some chance of rain returning
Thursday in the south as models showing the possibility of a mature
system lifting northward from the central plains. Widespread model
solutions exist with the evolution and timing of this system,
not uncommon at this time scale.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A Cold front tomorrow will make it through most of the fa before
stalling with a few post frontal showers. Prior to and during the
fropa cigs expected to remain VFR with mainly a wshft however no
strong winds anticipated.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Voelker



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