Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 252039
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

DEFORMATION BAND PCPN CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTO THE EVENING. A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING IS EXPECTED WITH WEAKENING LIFT AND LESSENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. BY MORNING A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MIST MAY LINGER
WITH POSSIBLY A WET SNOWFLAKE MIXED IN ACROSS THE DVL BSN.
MINIMUMS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MOSTLY UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

FOR TUESDAY A DRY DAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN NW MN AND SLOWING
ERODING FROM THE NE AS THE SHEAR AXIS IS REPLACED WITH 500MB
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS UPPER 40S WHERE CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER...WITH LOW 50S IN THE MORE SCATTERED SKY COVERED
AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 500MB NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. PLACEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN MOST PCPN CHANCES AS A STRONG POPS
GRADIENT IS FORECAST WITH DRY SFC AIRMASS ADVECTING FROM COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON ENE WINDS. PATTERN RECOGNITION
WITH THIS TYPICAL SPRINGTIME SET UP LIMITS PCPN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE PM INTO THURSDAY PM. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS MENTION SOUTH OF I94 CORRIDOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS REGION. ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ENTERING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...IMPACTS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE
UPPER LOW ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG



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