Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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213
FXUS63 KFGF 250443
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Receiving some very light drizzle at the office in Grand Forks and
GFK has reported rain. Can see drier air intruding into northern
valley on the mid-level WV imagery which matches well w/ a drizzle
like sounding for GFK, per RAP model guidance. Have added patchy
drizzle through the night to NW and west central MN. Latest
CONSSHORT also raising temps about 2 deg across the domain.

UPDATE Issued at 933 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Radar echoes have weakened and no reports of rain from METAR
reports...therefore have removed POPs for the remainder of the
night. Will remain mostly cloudy and cool tonight as lows fall
into the 40s for most of area...with lows over the southeast
remaining in the 50s in the thicker clouds. Fog not a concern
despite the recent rainfall with clouds and 10 mph NW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Timing of rain ending and T over the east the main challenges.
Rain area beginning to shift east as upper wave lifts northeast.
Cam guidance significantly diminishes coverage after 21z as upper
support lifts out and adjusted pops accordingly. Surface boundary
has not moved much yet with the far east still in somewhat of the
warm sector. With temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s still see some potential for T with shear, modest cape
and low instability. Shear is respectable but lapse
rates/instability not impressive for strong storms but will
monitor. Boundary should push far enough to get the far east back
into cooler temperatures so minimums should range generally in the
40s.

Surface high pressure builds briefly into the region tomorrow and
most area should remain dry. Cool airmass in place and with cloud
cover temperatures will remain cool in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Main piece of the western upper low lifts northeast Monday night
and Tuesday. This will bring a return of rain chances however
amounts should be fairly light. Rain will move out of the region
Tuesday evening followed by building high pressure. Temperatures
will remain cool.

The upper trough will have exited the region to the northeast by
Wednesday bringing dry and milder temperatures to the region. Dry
conditions are short lived as an upper level system and surface
trough move out of Canada into the Western Great Lakes region
Thursday. Guidance still differs with these features, mainly at the
surface. The ECMWF/CMC has a closed surface low moving into Michigan
whereas the GFS has more of an open surface trough moving through
the same area. All have a cold front extending westward into the
Upper Midwest and Northern Plains moving south through the region.
The closer proximity and better surface response within the
ECMWF/CMC produces better rain chances for Minnesota counties
whereas the GFS solution provides even rain chances along and near
the cold front across the CWA. The forecast reflects a blend of both
scenarios with all areas seeing rain chances moving north to south
Thursday, best chances residing east of the Red River. Behind this
cold front, a surface high pressure will sink into the region from
Manitoba/Ontario. A core of seasonably cool air is expected to move
east of the area closer to the center of the upper/mid level trough
over the Great Lakes. Should this airmass edge into the region, the
potential of patchy frost in normal susceptible areas will be
present with a timeframe of around Friday morning as the surface
high moves over. After Friday, thicknesses increase along with a
return to southerly surface flow bringing mild temperatures back
into the forecast through the weekend. Winds out of the south may be
on the gustier side towards the weekend, especially in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Predominantly MVFR from the valley through central ND with some
exceptions vcnty GFK, which is seeing IFR fluctuate into MVFR
range. IFR expected through the night east of the Red River. May
see GFK/TVF/BJI experience periods of light drizzle overnight as
well. Much like last night, all sites could see an increase in cig
category for short durations through the night. Some improvement
into the MVFR cat on Monday but predominant MVFR all day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...CJ/BP/Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher



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