Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221138
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

UPDATED AVAITION SECTION.  NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER AS WELL WITH MOST AREAS 70-75 FOR THE
AFTERNOON HIGH. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL START TO SPREAD NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT DO RUN INTO THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE SIT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH HIGH IN PLACE...PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF IN
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIP NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS
SLOWER AS WELL. NET RESULT WAS TO GO DRY ALL AREAS TONIGHT THEN
RESTRICT POPS SATURDAY TO ONLY THE SOUTH HALF. EVEN THIS MAY BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE. OVERALL FEEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING NORTH. RESULT IS WARMER AND SUNNIER CONDITIONS NORTH
SATURDAY AND A BIT CLOUDIER AND COOLER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE INTO SUNDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL
GET. ONCE AGAIN HIGH IN PLACE NR THE CANADIAN BORDER SO MOISTURE
WILL RUN INTO A BRICK WALL. THUS KEPT FAR NRN AREAS DRY THRU
SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS ALONG HWY 2 AND HIGHER POPS SOUTH. THE
PLACEMENT OF POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE TWEEKED IN FUTURE FCSTS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RATE OF EASTWARD PROGRESS OF PROTECTIVE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT BY
MEMORIAL DAY THIS WILL BE EVIDENT AS HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. SO THE SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EVIDENT...BUT LACK OF ANY SURFACE REFLECTION THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS PRECLUDES CONFIDENT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME. KEPT EXISTING SHRA GRIDS INTACT DURING MOST PERIODS
WITH OCCASIONAL MENTION OF ISO TSRA. LONGER WAVE TROUGH INDICATED
BY ECMWF BY THURS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS...BUT IF
CORRECT WOULD OFFER GREATER PCPN/THUNDER CHANCES AT END OF TIME
FRAME. HIGHS IN 60S MEMORIAL DAY OWING TO CLOUDS/PCPN SHOULD
TRANSITION TO 70S TUE-THU AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE SPORADIC.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR THRU THE PD. CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH WIND NR 10 MPH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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