Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 959 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Continue to reduce fog in the grids. Otherwise little change to
current forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Upper level ridge remains to the west and will edge closer to the
area tonight and Thu. Upper level jet will remain to the north of
the area. Adjusted winds and hourly temps and dewpoints. No other
changes at this update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Conditions this evening look to have winds diminishing into the
single digits across the region with minimal cloud cover. This
will allow low temperatures tonight to drop into the mid 20s with
the far east in the mid teens before mid level clouds spread
across the region. The challenge for tonight into the early
morning is possible fog formation especially across the deeper
snowpack areas of E ND where wind fields look to become the
lightest. Guidance is showing some fog and stratus in this area
overnight though same guidance is indicating a stratus deck
across central ND which is not there. Will need to monitor over
the next few hours to see if confidence increases enough to put
into the grids for the morning.

Warmer than normal temperatures continue tomorrow with highs
ranging from upper 30s to upper 40s across the forecast area with
winds in E ND turning to the west and helping mix down some
warmer 10 to 12C 850mb air.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Main challenge for the first portion of this forecast is the
amount of warming expected across the area. A lot will depend on
snow pack, with most areas bare in the southern valley with a more
significant snow pack in the northern valley and along the
Canadian border.

Otherwise, models indicate strong warming as upper ridge develops
over the area, and thickness values along with 850hPa temps of
around 10C to 12C support the forecast reasoning. Therefore, it is
not unreasonable to see daytimes highs in the low 40s in the north,
with potential of hitting low 50s in the north as more open ground
supports greater heating. Westerly winds are also more favorable for
heating so feel more confident of the amount of warming over the
next several days.

Precipitation chances return to start the new work week after
several days of drying. Models still vary on the sfc features and
there is some question as to where most of the precipitation will
fall.  Temperatures still look to remain warm enough for mainly a
rain event with the exception of a rain/snow mention for the far
north along the international border. Will watch subsequent model
runs to get a better feel how the system will develop.

The pattern appears to become a bit more active toward the end of
the period with slightly cooler temps, but values are still expected
to remain above seasonal norms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 651 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Fog loop/surface obs indicated cirrus clouds moving into the
forecast area out of Canada. Expect VFR conditions overnight and
Thu. Models want to develop some fog and MVFR cigs near the Red
River proper overnight. Will throttle back on too much fog or low




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