Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 210901
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES OVER AN INCH BY TUE AND APPROACHES
AN INCH AN A QUARTER TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER, INSTABILITY REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO MOSTLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL GO FOR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER.

FOR THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SHORT WAVE OVER WI AND
ANOTHER SECONDARY LOBE OVER NORTHERN MN. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.  WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR
THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EAST ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS
INCREASE ABOVE 850 HPA AND CREATE A CAP ALOFT BY 7 PM CDT TODAY.
TEMP CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. AN INVERSION
LOWERS TO JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY MON AFTERNOON. WILL GO COOLER FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOME
DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AS A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM WYOMING AND COLORADO INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.  PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY ON THE
SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE THIS WAVE AND PRETTY LIMITED.  00Z ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z GFS.  MAINTAINED CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA FCST AREA.  THEREAFTER A DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THU-SAT WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER.  00Z GFS BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT FASTER IN THE LATE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND IN MANY
CASES THE SLOWER SO LN IS BEST.  ALL BLEND POPS FOLLOWED THE DRIER
SOLN.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME LOWER
CIGS INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES TOWARDS MORNING. KEPT SOME MVFR
CIGS GOING AT KGFK...KBJI...AND KTVF. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CU FORMATION WITH FAIRLY
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUT ANY CIGS THAT FORM SHOULD BE IN THE
4000-6000 FT RANGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY TOMORROW EVENING AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR




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