000
FXUS63 KFGF 121217
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
717 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

TEMPS AT THE MIN OF THE MORNING AT 11-12Z WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S AREA WIDE...FOSSTON AND WASKISH THE COLD SPOT AT
19. ADJUSTED TEMP CURVE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT TO SEE A FAST
RISE IN TEMPS NOW THAT SUN AS RISEN AND SKIES ARE CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

SFC HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S
IN MOST AREAS....WITH A FEW SPOTS INTO THE LOWER 20S. A BIT WARMER
IN DVL BASIN WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM IN THE
LOWER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY...SO TODAY OVERALL WILL
SEE WAY LESS WIND THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS. ALSO 925-850 MB TEMPS TO
START TO REBOUND WITH SFC TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 60S WEST FCST
AREA TO THE MID 50S IN THE EAST. SOME THIN CIRRUS TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST TODAY OVER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. BUT OTHER
THAN THAT FULL SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVE WITH SOME MID CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT IN 850-700 MB WARM ADV ZONE. A FEW
SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THIS WARM ADV ZONE 06Z-12Z IN ERN ND SPREADING
INTO NW MN 12Z-18Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS WARM ADV WITH WINDS TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST MON AFTN IN ERN
ND AND THIS WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS WELL THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. FAR ERN FCST
AREA TO BE COOLER WITH UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS LINGER JUST A BIT
LONGER AND WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY THRU 00Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AHD OF SFC LOW
WHICH WILL MOVE THRU SRN SASK-MANITOBA LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT A BETTER CHC OF A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY NRN
AREAS TUESDAY MORNING-MIDDAY...BUT MOST DYNAMICS STAY NORTH OF THE
BORDER. GFS/ECMWF LIKELY A BIT HIGH ON DEW PTS BUT STILL SOME
INSTABILITY DOES SPREAD INTO ERN FCST MIDDAY-AFTN TUESDAY AND OF
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUES AFTN.
WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES AROUND 30 MPH VERY ILKELY IN ERN ND. AT THE PRESENT TIME
HIGH ENOUGH DEW PTS LIKELY TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BUT THEN THE GFS BECOMES FASTER BY FRI
AND SAT. FAST ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD
AND SO TIMING OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE UNRELIABLE AT BEST. ECMWF AND
GFS POPS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. WILL REMOVE
POPS FROM THU. WILL TRIM BACK POPS IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES SAT
NIGHT AND SUN

LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...ONLY A DEGREE LOWER FOR WED THROUGH FRI. A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE OVER GFK-FAR-TVF REGION WILL GIVE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING TURNING SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN-EVE.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KTS IN DVL REGION WHILE
BJI AREA WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WIND NR 5 KTS THRU THE AFTN. SKIES
CLEAR AREA WIDE WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS THIS AFTN-EVE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT EAST GRAND
FORKS...OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ALONG THE RED RIVER. POINTS
ALONG THE MAINSTEM RED AS WELL AS THE ND AND MN TRIBUTARIES
CONTINUE TO SEE FALLING RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...JK