Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280445
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HRRR QUICKEST MESOSCALE MODEL BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO
THE DVL BASIN TOWARDS MORNING WITH REMAINDER SLOWER KEEPING FA
DRY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW AND WITH
TIMING OF FRONT ON TRACK MADE NO CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MESOSCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY PCPN ENTERING OUR FA UNTIL AT OR
12Z. BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS AS IS FOR NOW UNTIL OPERATIONAL
MODELS COME HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY PCPN MOVING IN TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND MUCH COLDER AIR
AFTER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERSUS THE
QUICKER ECMWF WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST
IN THE NORTH...WARMER SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN
THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD NIGHT EXCEPT THE
FAR NORTH AND HAVE DELAYED POPS.

ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY AND MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 50 IN THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE AREA OF MID LEVEL
FGEN NORTH OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH DEEP LAYERED SATURATION AND
STRONG 700MB OMEGA. WITH PWATS AROUND 1 INCH...EXPECT A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WITH SOME AREAS GETTING A
HALF INCH PERHAPS A BIT MORE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT COULD ALSO
GET BREEZY IN THE VALLEY WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST SFC WINDS. IT WILL
BE WARM IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THOUGH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
IN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA. THE OVERALL LIFTING SHOULD WEAKEN AND SHIFT
INTO EASTERN AREAS LATE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FOR MONDAY...MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A DRY DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
PERSISTING IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FROM
SUNDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH EASTERLY FLOW.

ON TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AS A POTENT CLOSED SHORTWAVE
AND 990MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR KMBG BY 00Z WED. THIS COUPLED WITH A
50KT LLJ AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MEAN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM A BIT FROM MONDAY...BUT HINGE ON HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WE GET. IT SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT LEAST ESE WINDS
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...LONG TERM GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CLOSED LOW ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT LIFTING INTO
CANADA WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT POSSIBILITY FARTHER
SOUTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IN OUR VICINITY WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST. CARRIED
LOW -RW POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING TO COME
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES. THIS
PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN SURFACE TEMP FORECASTS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

TIMING OF LOWER CIGS AND -RA MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT SEVERAL TAF
ISSUANCES. REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS
UPSTREAM. MAINTAINED VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS. DID LOWERS CIGS
ACROSS THE DVL BASIN INTO NORTHERN FA MID MORNING OR SO AS RAIN
BAND SAGS SOUTHWARD. SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY TO STAY VFR MOST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...VOELKER





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