Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290438
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF KINL...BUT THESE SHOULD
STILL STAY JUST EAST OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
ANY FURTHER WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. MOST OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION OUTPUT KEEPS IT JUST TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE ALREADY
SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WHERE WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHTEST. WILL EXPAND THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER NW ONTARIO MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA ARE SOME OTHER
WEAKER SHORT WAVES. A FEW OTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVES ALSO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SO PATTERN IS PRETTY MUDDLED ALOFT. AT THE
SFC NOT MUCH BETTER. SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP INDICATING A SFC
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NRN RRV THIS AFTN AND THEN SINKING SOUTH
THIS LATE AFTN/EVE. SO FAR REAL HARD TO PICK ONE OUT. WINDS ARE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO 25 KTS GRAND FORKS-GRAFTON AND DO SHIFT A TAD
MORE WEST LANGDON-DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THEN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA
PRETTY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO AT THIS POINT HARD TO TELL IF INDEED
A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH AS HRRR/RAP/NAM AND NCEP
MODELS SAY. PRETTY UNSTABLE IN NRN ERN ND/NW MN WITH MAX MU CAPES
IN THE 4000 J/KG RANGE NR ROSEAU-HALLOCK...LIKELY IMPACTED BY
HIGHER DEW PTS NOTED BY AWOS`S. THAT SAID CONVECTIVE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
JAMESTOWN-FARGO-BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA 00Z-03Z PERIOD. ALSO
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS. MORE UNCERTAIN
IN THE NRN VALLEY AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY MAX IS AS
CONVECTIVE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW NOTHING TO DEVELOP BUT OBS MAY
INDICATE ATMOSPHERE PRIMED. SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HAVE
POPS IN AREAS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUT ALBEIT A BIT
WIDER AREA. INTO SATURDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HOT AND HUMID AND A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THRU LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE TREND FOR THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH A
WARM/HOT AIR MASS IN PLACE AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MID 80S TO LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE AS
WELL. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON
DETAILS...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF THE COOLER AIR...BUT BOTH HAVE
A SFC LOW IN THE GENERAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS STILL LOOKING GOOD. LIGHT OR LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG. THEN THE
SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO LATE SAT MORNING. ONLY
EXPECTING SCT-BKN CIRRUS/SMOKE FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON


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