Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 150231
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...LEAVING CLOUD COVER AS THE BIG QUESTION MARK. MOST AREAS
STILL BROKEN TO OVERCAST...AND ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME. THUS...THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND ONLY PATCHY
FROST APPEARS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HOW COLD WILL IT GET TONIGHT IS THE QUESTION. RIGHT NOW THICKER
POCKETS OF STRATOCU REMAIN WITH OTHER AREAS OF MORE CELLULAR
CUMULUS. THE CELLULAR CU WILL DISSIPATE AT DARK LEAVING THE
PATCHY/AREAS OF STRATOCU AT THE LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CENTER OF HIGH WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT.
OVERALL IT LOOKS COOL TONIGHT BUT WITH CENTER OF HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND NOT A FULLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS TO STAY
IN THE MID TO UPR 30S FOR LOWS. LIKELY A COUPLE OF COLDER SPOTS
PER USUAL...BUT OVERALL NOT ENOUGH FROST POSSIBILITIES TO ISSUE
ANY FROST HEADLINES TONIGHT. EVE SHIFT CAN MONITOR. DID USE POWT
TOOL TO THROUGH IN PATCHY FROST IN AREAS WITH TEMPS BLO 37.

MONDAY WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE SUN AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND
NOT AS COOL. SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS
ZONE AS JET MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF BUILDING
500 MB RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING
CONSIDERABLY UNDER SUNSHINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKING AT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
STARTING WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITS THE
AREA...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND...GENERALLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THURS/THURS NIGHT. LL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO 12C...AND A LL JET OF 35
TO 40KTS. EXPECTING SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
GENERATE -SHRA/-TSRA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT UPPER LEVEL TROF TO RETURN
TO THE AREA BRIEFLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING LESS
WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






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