Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 250512
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

SO ONLY -SN OR FLURRIES BE REPORTED BY UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...AND IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR (AS THE
DRY LAYER ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION) IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND
PATCHY AND LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS (THIS IS FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND SOUTHWARD).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW OB
SITES INDICATING -SN WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-5SM RANGE. WILL KEEP THE
SCHC POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN FA. THE RAP AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE QPF HERE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS QPF IS THAT A DRY LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THIS REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND -5C TO
-8C...SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS ARE POSSIBLE. INSERTED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD.

WILL ALSO ISSUE A SPS FOR THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WFO BIS HAS A STATEMENT ISSUED...AND IT WOULD
BE BEST TO KEEP THE MESSAGE WITHIN NORTH DAKOTA CONSISTENT.
PLUS...A FEW INDICATIONS FOR MESO-SCALE BANDING (STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE...FRONTOGENESIS...POSSIBLE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY)...AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATING A NARROW
BAND OF QPF UP TO AROUND 0.4 INCHES (SO COULD BE A NARROW BAND OF
3-5 INCHES...BUT LOCATION OF THIS BAND COULD BE ANYWHERE).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHING DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EVENTUALLY. THESE
CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. -SN
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.