Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221819
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1219 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PATCH OF STRATUS MOVING NORTHEAST AS EXPECTED EXITING FARGO AND
MOVING THROUGH MAHNOMEN AND FOSSTON. OTHERWISE CIRRUS INCREASING
FROM THE NORTHWEST IN WARM ADV PATTERN. EXPECT QUITE RISE IN TEMPS
TODAY...LATEST TO SEE IT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FLOOR. WILL KEEP
PREV THINKING OF SOME 20S FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S FAR
WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES....ESP NW FCST AREA...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BLO ADVISORY. DID UPDATE WEATHER TRENDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE. LOOKING AT GFS/NAM 12Z 925 MB
TEMOS FEEL WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO FALL MUCH AND USING 12Z GFS FOR UPPER LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BRING MORE LIQUID THAN FROZEN LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...WITH A SFC LOW
STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERA. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMER AIR MASS BACK INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD AGAIN GET INTO
THE 20S AND 30S EVEN WITH A COOL START THIS MORNING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DIGGING
FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ND. THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT TODAY ON PUTTING OUT SOME PRECIP TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THE RAP IN
FACT HAS SOME PRECIP MOVING IN AS SOON AS LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE TIME IT TAKES TO SATURATE AND
WILL KEEP POPS OUT UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. HAVE SOME 20-30 POPS
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG WARM LAYER
ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SFC TEMPS IN THE
EVENING MAY ACTUALLY STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS OFF SOME FREEZING RAIN IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE FOR SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN INTO MN...ALLOWING THE
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE EAST AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. WITH THE WEST WINDS
THINK WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN CLOUDS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS
STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO C...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND SOME SPOTS NEAR THE 40 MARK.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL BRING A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT STRUGGLE
ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP WHEN IT MOVES IN. THE ECMWF IS FASTER
THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN
FURTHER WEST WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THIS PUTS IT MORE SIMILAR TO
THE NAM WHICH IS FURTHEREAST WEST WITH DEFORMATION BAND PRECIP AND
IS THE STRONGEST WITH QPF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS THE
MAIN PRECIP OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BLENDED SOLUTION...WHICH HAS THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP...SO WENT WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE ESSENTIALLY REMAINS OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...PERHAPS RETROGRADES A BIT TROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
PATTERN INTENSIFIES THROUGH DAY 5 THEN DE AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FASTER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A DEGREE OR SO FOR SUN AND INCREASED
TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FOR MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FZRA THIS EVENING AT GFK AND
TVF IN THE 0 TO 6Z TIME FRAME THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS VERY POOR SO HAVE
EXCLUDED FROM TAF CURRENTLY. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS DRY LEVEL UNDER
8KFT AND SFC TEMPS...MAY JUST BE RAIN IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR. FARTHER
EAST AT BJI DID MENTION -SN OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION AND COVERAGE
INCREASE LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JK





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