Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280339
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
939 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Some light snow is still being reported at Grafton and up toward
the Lake of the Woods region. This should continue to weaken
through the late evening. Next band of light snow will move up out
of northeast SD overnight. Aberdeen has already reported some
light snow and echoes are intensifying over the southern Red River
Valley. Therefore would anticipate some light snow falling over
the southern valley by midnight or so. Forecast in good shape at
this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Snow chances will continue to be the main impacts through the
short term. Current snow band from northern DVL basin into the
northern valley will continue to lift northeast through the late
afternoon and evening. Model guidance has this band weakening
through the period as isentropic lift weakens so will have to
monitor trends but did taper off pops with time. Web cams within
snow band not showing any significant accumulations. With NW-SE
baroclinic zone in place will see a respectable thermal gradient
across the region with single digits in the NW to mid 20s over the
SE.

The next challenge will be developing snow band over the SE fa
later tonight. Baroclinic zone tightens along frontal boundary
oriented from the SE tip of ND into the Mn arrowhead region. Snow
should start developing by late evening along boundary with
approach of next wave. High resolution models look to be backing
off on qpf with this event. Using the more robust GFS with qpf,
there is f-gen forcing aligned with Q-vector convergence over the
far SE at 06z however this shifts SE fairly progressively as
boundary sags southward. So based on available guidance not
thinking more than an inch or two across the SE. There is a slight
chance for some mixed pcpn across the far se however at this point
confidence low.

Lingering snow should exit the S-SE by mid morning and as surface
ridge axis builds in remainder of the day should be dry.
Temperatures should range a few degrees either side of average.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A quiet Tuesday night will be followed by increasing chances for
some snow across southeastern ND both Wed morning and late Wed night
into Thu morning.  Two waves will move across central and eastern ND
in that timeframe, with the second one being a clipper entering the
valley region Wed evening.  This system has decent overlap of H850
FG forcing and weak Q-vector convergence setting up over SE ND,
however current QPF trends are not impressive at this time.  Given
the dynamics, however, more bullish QPF could lead to a quick
coating of snow in the Devils Lake-Valley City-Wahpeton area from
midnight through sunrise Thursday.  Colder temperatures behind this
system will bring a chillier Thursday, with daytime highs ranging
from the mid teens to mid 20s, and overnight lows across the
northeast possibly seeing single digits below zero.  Ridging over
the Canadian Rockies then shifts east late in the week bringing
warmer temperatures for Fri and Sat...with daytime highs about 10
deg over seasonal norms Fri and 15 degs over on Sat, which could see
highs in the 40s for the southern half of the forecast area.
Agreement between the long range models begins to break down by Sun,
with GFS showing a potentially significant system (for srn Canada)
bringing snow to Sask/MB Mon aftn and evening while the ECMWF shows
precip across the southern valley Sun night and ridging over the
area on Mon. Thus confidence is low in the Day 6 to Day 7 timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Ceilings are the main aviation forecast challenge. Currently have
a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions, and that will probably continue
throughout most of the TAF period. The band of light snow around
KDVL should end in the next hour or two, and it should stay north
of KGFK and KTVF. KBJI will be a tough call, as the latest high
resolution models show another band developing there around
midnight. Will have to see what the 00Z model runs have in store
for the KBJI area. Otherwise a band of snow will move northeast
out of SD mainly after midnight, but this too should stay south of
KFAR and KBJI. Lots of bands of light snow scooting around the
TAF sites tonight into early Tuesday, and will just have to
monitor and adjust them as need be. Winds should stay north at 5
to 15 knots.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Godon


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