Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200437
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS TRIMMED BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NE. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENINGS SEVERE STORMS PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST. PREFRONTAL TROUGH ROUGHLY BISECTING FA FROM NE-SW. WITH
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE FA MAINLY SKC OR CI ALONG AND WEST OF
BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY CONFINING POPS
TO THE NE FA. REMAINDER SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND STRENGTH WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

WV LOOP SHOWS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE
MORNING ACTIVITY MOVING OFF INTO MN WHILE THERE IS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER MT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND THE SECOND MORE WEAK WAVE WILL COME INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OFF FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN MN...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING INTO THE CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED PRECIP ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS MUCH OF THE DAY...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS FINALLY CLEARED OUT AND GAINED SOME
SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THERE HAVE BEEN TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR
RETURNS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IN OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE THE CAP HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FURTHER SOUTH.

THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF ND AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES OUT OF MT...AND
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY MOVES EAST. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND THE BEST
INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SEVERE BUT
SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE EVENING.

TOMORROW...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO
WESTERN MN OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY
WINDS...BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA BY
PEAK HEATING. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A HUGE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE MODELS...BUT FORCING WITH THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE WILL BE VERY STRONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBILITIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL ALSO KNOCK
DOWN TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN PLAINS AND WE SHOULD HAVE SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...SO KEPT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AS WE
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION.

WILL START OFF THE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WITH 500MB
RIDGING OVER THE FA...BUT WILL HAVE A 500MB LOW CUTTING THRU THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MON NIGHT
DRY BUT HAVE SOME PCPN CHANCES TUE THRU WED NIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST WILL BE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR THU/FRI.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL EARLY ON...BUT BECOME A LITTLE
WARMER AGAIN BY THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOME MVFR/IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW MN WHICH HIGH RES MESO
SCALE MODEL PICKING UP ON. CONFINED LOWER CIGS TO TVF AND BJI
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY WESTWARD EXPANSION. COULD
ALSO SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT IN SAME AREAS WHICH ALSO RECEIVED
RAIN FALL ACROSS NW MN. REMAINDER SHOULD BE VFR WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/TSRA SPREADING FROM NW-SE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...VOELKER






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