Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 301803
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
103 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO 90
ALREADY...INCLUDING THE LANGDON AND LEEDS AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER AND NEAR TERM VARIABLES WITH THIS
UPDATE. LOW CLOUDS IN THE NRN RRV AND FAR EAST ARE SLOWLY ERODING
THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING LIKE A HOT DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...ALTHOUGH MID 90S WON`T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL TODAY...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER SOME
MORNING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN AGAIN MID WEEK. PREFER THE NAM SINCE
THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND DRY LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AND ANY SMOKE COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOME. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
30KT TO MIX FROM THE VALLEY WEST. IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM
REGARDLESS...ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY IN LATE AUGUST.

FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE DVL BASIN LATE.
THIS COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A 50KT LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE FAR
WEST...PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY VERY LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND MAY DRY UP AS IT DOES SO. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
WITH A WINDSHIFT TO THE NW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY IN THE NORTH WITH MORE INSTABILITY THAN TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VERY WARM AND MOIST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
WILL BE ISOLATED UNTIL PERHAPS LATER FRI/SAT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
THE EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN US UPPER TROUGH (AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES) IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING. THESE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE FEATURES ARE TYPICAL AT THIS RANGE IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN A FASTER...WETTER SOLUTION WITH A SFC
LOW FARTHER SOUTH...COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT IN GENERAL SCT-BKN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.  LOW LEVEL JET 40-50 KTS TONIGHT UP IN
THE 3-5K AGL RANGE...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  FARGO IS MOST PRONE TO SEE THIS.
MID CLOUDS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-
MONDAY MORNING AND THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY
12Z MON FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...RIDDLE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.