Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221142
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Minimal changes for the today period with a slow advancing cold
front pushing into the northern tier of the ND counties as winds
have shifted with a northerly component over the past couple
hours. Did add a mention of patchy fog across north western
Devils Lake basin with Rolla METAR showing VSBY severely reduced.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Challenge for the forecast will be placement and timing of north
to south fropa today. Fropa will impact max temps with northerly
wind shift and cloud coverage. Behind the front along the northern
tier of counties in the Devils Lake Basin and northern Red River
valley max temps will struggle into the 40s whereas the southern
half of the forecast area will see upper 50s to mid 60s for
afternoon highs. Wide range in 925mb temps at 21Z with -2C across
the north and 12 to 14 C in the southern half of the FA. PoPs
will increase along and behind fropa as tightening baroclinic zone
and frontogenetical forcing provide increasing lift into the
evening and overnight hours. Rain mixing and possibly changing
over to snow is possible north of highway 200. Some light snow
accumulations by Sunday morning on grassy surfaces appear likely.
Banding of heavier snow rates do appear possible given the strong
baroclinic and frontogenetical forcing overnight. This would lead
to higher Placement of that band will need to be monitored as the
predictability window of narrows today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

By Sunday morning the frontal boundary will have stalled out along
the ND/SD border with PoPs continuing across the central part of
the forecast area for much of the day. A rather cool and raw April
day with temps in the low 40s as 925mb range -2 to 4C with a east
northeast wind. Another round of rain mixing with or changing back
to snow will be possible Sunday night as the boundary begins to
lift to the north as 500mb flow becomes southwesterly. Again
another round of light snow accumulations on grassy surfaces appear
possible.

By Monday morning SFC low lifting out of Nebraska into South
Dakota will bring wide spread rain across the entire area with
totals ranging from quarter to three of an inch increasing from
west to east across the FA. Rain will diminish from west to east
with another possible scenario of rain mixing with snow or
changing over to snow as the cooler air wraps back in Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

For the middle to the end of next week, expect mostly dry weather
and temperatures for the to be cooler than normal as a strong jet
streak off of the West Coast digs a broad trough deep into the
Plains.

Tuesday will be breezy as north winds ramp up behind the nearby
surface low, drifting eastward toward the Great Lakes. At this time,
high temperatures Tuesday look to only reach the 40s. The latest
model runs have come into fairly good agreement for the Red River
Valley, suggesting precipitation chances will likely skirt by to the
south Tuesday and to the east Wednesday as a shortwave aloft passes
through South Dakota into Minnesota. Cool air remains entrenched in
the area through Friday, bringing high temperatures barely into the
50s and lows near the freezing mark for the end of the work week.

Model agreement remains better than normal Wednesday through Friday,
indicating small chances for precipitation Wednesday night through
Friday for areas near ND/SD border and in north central MN. This is
a result of several weather systems brushing by to the south through
the Great Plains. Any precipitation associated with these systems
looks to be light in the forecast area, but the potential remains
for wintry precipitation as overnight temperatures fall to near
freezing values each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

MVFR CIGs along slow moving front in N ND appear they will hold
off reaching DVL or GFK this morning. Did tempo in a 3hr period at
DVL this morning. Otherwise wind shift pushes south today
reaching FAR this evening. CIGs lower behind fropa with possible
RASN at all TAF sites except FAR overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/BP
AVIATION...JK



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