Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 301730
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU HAS POURED INTO THE STATE
IN THE FRONTS WAKE MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CAA PATTERN
MOVING EAST LATER TODAY AND DRY AIR WORKING TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS MAY TEND TO HANG
AROUND A BIT LONGER OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. SAT IMAGERY
INDICATED CLEARING TREND WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
BUT HAS SLOWED UP THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE COOL MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA.

FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF CLEARING SKIES AT THE START...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...FORECAST
TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WAA SYSTEM ARE DELAYED. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ADDING PATCHY FROST MENTION TONIGHT IF THE TREND GOES
THAT DIRECTION.

ARRIVAL OF PCPN WITH THE WAA THEN SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE STRONGER WAA
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST
SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
QUESTIONS LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ON HOW PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE.
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AROUND BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE A WET ONE...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE WITH LIKELY
POPS AT MOST PLACES. LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -1C... THUS COULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAYBE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THICKNESS PATTERN
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW DOWN TO WAUSAU...
MARSHFIELD... AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS EAST TO NEAR SHAWANO/WAUPACA.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS WHICH WERE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A HEALTHY
INVERSION HAVE FINALLY SHOWED SIGNS OF THINNING OUT ACROSS THE NW
HALF OF WI. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO CONT DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TO
SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE EAST. THE BREAK IN THE CLOUDS MAY NOT
LAST LONG AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS AND MID/HI CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL
OF IFR CIGS LATE TNGT. THE MVFR CIGS WL THEN CONT ON WED AS A BAND
OF SHWRS GRADUALLY PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A CDFNT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......AK






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