Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 301118
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU HAS POURED
INTO THE STATE IN THE FRONTS WAKE MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
CAA PATTERN MOVING EAST LATER TODAY AND DRY AIR WORKING TO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS TRENDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY ISSUE.  WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...CLOUDS MAY
TEND TO HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. SAT
IMAGERY INDICATED CLEARING TREND WAS WORKING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BUT HAS SLOWED UP THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE COOL MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH CLOUDS CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF CLEARING SKIES AT THE START...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FORECAST TEMPS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WAA SYSTEM ARE DELAYED. DAY
SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING PATCHY FROST MENTION TONIGHT IF
THE TREND GOES THAT DIRECTION.

ARRIVAL OF PCPN WITH THE WAA THEN SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH
CONTINUED HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE STRONGER WAA
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF THE FIRST
SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
QUESTIONS LINGER THURSDAY MORNING ON HOW PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE.
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AROUND BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THE GAME THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE A WET ONE...THUS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EVERYWHERE
WITH LIKELY CHANCES AT MOST PLACES. LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO -1C...
THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.

SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ON FRIDAY. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAYBE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SOME SNOW FLAKES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THICKNESS PATTERN
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW DOWN TO WAUSAU...MARSHFIELD...
AND WISCONSIN RAPIDS EAST TO NEAR SHAWANO/WAUPACA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO BRING SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOULD REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 FEET WILL
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUBTLE
IMPROVEMENTS LATER MORNING OVER SOME LOCATIONS. DRIER WORKING INTO
THE REGION MAY PRODUCE MORE AREAS OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CLOUDS PERSIST
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY...DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY TEND TO
PUSH THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.