Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 180906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
406 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The right entrance region of a strong upper jet will exit around
daybreak, and any remaining showers across the north should come
to an end. Drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive today, though
high temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Clear skies and light winds are expected tonight. The air is not
that cold upstream and there should be a little wind in the
boundary layer, so expect lows a few degrees above normal.

Wednesday will feature increasing clouds as a weak trough moves
through. There might be some virga in the north, but not expecting
any precipitation.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Temperatures will return to more seasonable levels during the
period. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern Wednesday
night through Friday. The only concern is across the north where
low level winds may come off Lake Superior some lake clouds and
possibility of light shower Thursday night into Friday morning.
850mb winds fairly light, thus will hold off on adding any
precipitation for this period. A weak system will bring a chance
of rain late Friday night across central Wisconsin and then across
the far north on Saturday.

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected Sunday
and Monday. Only minor changes made to the forecast, mainly to
add adjust highs for our typically warmer locations.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 953 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

No real change to forecast logic for the 06z TAF issuance. Model
forecast soundings for RHI suggest LLWS may end a bit earlier than
originally expected. Otherwise, expect low (IFR/LIFR) ceilings to
sag south behind the front, but probably not all the way across
the forecast area.



LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.