Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KGRB 250200
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
900 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

PCPN TRENDS THE PRIMARY ISSUE THROUGH MONDAY. SECONDARY ISSUES
CONCERN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

DEVELOPMENT OF NARROW BAND OF MODERATE RAIN SO FAR HAS TRENDED A
BIT SOUTH TODAY. AS OF EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THIS BAND IS
POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE FOX
CITIES AND GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
LIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 850 FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SO FAR WERE 1.50 AT MEDFORD AND NEARLY AN INCH AT WAUSAU. RAIN WAS
FALLING MORE AS A STRATIFORM TYPE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HAVE PULLED TSRA OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS WELL WEST
WITH THE 850 SURFACE LOW DEEPENING A LITTLE OVER THE DAKOTAS.

PROGS WERE A BIT TOO NORTH WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY
TODAY BUT SHOULD TRY TO CATCH UP AS THE 850 FRONT LIFTS TO NEAR
THE WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH OVER MOST LOCATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HIGHER 3
INCH AMOUNTS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO EARLY SOUTHERN TREND.

WILL KEEP A TSRA MENTION GOING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE
QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY. IN FACT IT COULD BE MORE EXTREME MONDAY DEPENDING ON THIS
FRONT LOCATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE IN THE 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER 40S NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

COOL PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THE PERIOD AS WESTERN TROUGH WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYSTEMS EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE PERIOD. FOR WARM WEATHER
FANS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT EAST TO NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS
AT THE SURFACE INTO EARLY MAY. NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FIRST SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERED HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY EVENING, THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
IS DRY...BUT THE GFS INDICATED WEAK TROUGH AT 500MB MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GFS DEPICTED PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION HEADED EAST TOWARDS THE AREA BUT DRIED UP BY THE
TIME IT GOT TO OUR FORECAST AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE
WERE A FEW SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT FROST HEADLINES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN CHANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY IS TO SLOW DOWN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE RAIN APPROACHING THE
AREA WILL HIT A BRICK WALL DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LARGE HUDSON BAY WILL BE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
THIS FEATURE MAY IMPACT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE PRECIPITATION GRIDS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR BOTH EVENTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED NEXT
24 HRS AS MUCH OF NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS NORTH OF
STRONG E-W FRONTAL SYSTEM. PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

PERSISTENT ENE WINDS AND GUSTY AT TIMES WILL BUILD
WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES BY
THIS EVENING. TIMING OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING
DUE TO SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
FOR A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN OVERALL UNDER AN INCH PER
HOUR AND A STRATIFORM VARIETY. INITIAL NARROW BAND OF MODERATE
RAIN FROM MEDFORD TO WAUSAU TO PARTS OF THE FOX CITIES GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTH. REGARDLESS...MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
1 TO 2 INCH SOAKING RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH NEAR THE 850 FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THEN OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. FLOODING AFFECTS WILL BE FELT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH AT LEAST BANK FULL LEVELS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......JKL
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.