Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 261959
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AT 19Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WITH WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
COMMA HEAD REGION WHICH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL
GET DRY SLOTTED TONIGHT...LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
AREAL COVERAGE.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...HOWEVER SOME SUN WAS BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
SPC DAY 1 STILL INDICATED MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DO EXPECT SOME STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THUS COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

ALSO...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY AS 500MB TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LEFTOVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND A SURFACE HIGH
EDGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH JET ENERGY MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THEY
SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT SATURDAY BY NOON WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AIR IS SO DRY AND
COOL THAT THERE MAY BE A FROST IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FIRST
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS OF NOON. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THIS AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED
LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING A
DIMINISHING OR END TREND TO THE RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK INTO NORTHEAST AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR
OR IFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MAY
PREVAIL FOR AWHILE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE DRY SLOT. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD RETURN ACROSS THIS AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG


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