Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190813
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
313 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Daytime diurnal cloud trends and moderating temperatures through
Friday are the focus.

The center of the surface to 850 high pressure region will nudge
eastward today through Friday but will remain in control of the
weather regime. Progs attempt to bring in more diurnal clouds
from the west in the return flow region of the high pressure
region along with weak upper level troughing. Not confident with
the guidance increase to a broken layer of afternoon clouds each
today and Friday. Surface dewpoints to the southwest still in the
30s. Sat imagery to the west over the Northern and Central plains
also indicated limited cu development on Wednesday.

As a result will continue to lift max afternoon temps to near
normal the next few days. Overnight lows also continue to
increase to decrease frost potential. With actual surface
dewpoints lagging guidance it is possible some patchy frost
mention is still needed across the north tonight.

Light winds will turn onshore along Lake Michigan each today and
Friday but even in those locations reached near 60 the last few
days.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu May 19 2016

00Z models showed a mid level trough moving across Wisconsin
Friday night, but surface high pressure and dry air across the
region should keep the forecast area dry. A mid level ridge over
the Plains is forecast to drift eastward over the weekend as a
large surface high remains over the eastern CONUS. This will keep
the area dry with warmer than normal temperatures. Southerly flow
will bring more moisture into the area once the ridge axis passes
east of Wisconsin. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
in central and north central Wisconsin on Monday, ahead of a
surface system approaching from the west. Precipitation chances
expand across the entire forecast area Monday night and continue
through Wednesday as a couple of mid level short waves move
across the state and a frontal boundary arrives.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed May 18 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours as a
ridge of high pressure is forecast to reside over the Great Lakes
region. Daytime cu field with bases at 6-8K ft will develop again
on Thursday. Winds to remain light and variable through tonight,
then become more S-SW on Thursday as the ridge slips a bit farther
east, becoming light and variable again Thursday evening.
Exception to these winds will be at MTW where lake breeze would
shift the winds to the SE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-030-035-036-045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kurimski



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