Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 020330
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1030 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST PLACES WITH GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE AROUND FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TIMING OF A FEW PRECIP CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FOCUS.

FIRST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE AND PROGGED TO DROP OVER THE AREA.  PROGS STALL THIS FRONT
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS
AND RETURN FLOW. PROGS SUGGESTS SOME DIURNAL ELEMENT TO THE PCPN
SO WILL TREND POPS IN THAT DIRECTION BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE LOW.

OTHERWISE THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLIES. A STRONG
TROUGH SLIDING OVER CANADA WILL SLIDE A COLD FRONT OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRIFT SETTLE OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CLEAR SKIES COVERED C/NE WI LATE THIS EVG...AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATED THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
ALTOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...AND SOME
SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP THERE ON THURSDAY.

THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...
THINK THAT MANY OBSERVATION SITES WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
FOG...AND SEVERAL MAY HAVE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS. NOT SURE IF
FOG WILL DEVELOP AT AUW/CWA/ATW...AS ALL THREE SITES HAVE LARGE
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS LATE THIS EVG.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH


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