Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 070910
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
410 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVED OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY THIS
MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
50KT JET AT 500MB APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION AND
NO STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HEAT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW 80S IN MOST PLACES.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS STRONG JET ENERGY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
LATER TONIGHT AS THE JET DEPARTS. CLOUDY SKIES AND A BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 60 IN MOST PLACES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER JET DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AS THERE WILL BE COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

MODELS HOLD ONTO SOME QPF IN OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. SO HAVE A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS...SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO STILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS PART OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD...BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WERE MAINLY ALONG A WEST TO EAST
BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPPING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATE THIS EVENING. AT 1100 PM THE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM
JUST NORTH OF MNM TO AIG TO WESTERN MARATHON COUNTY AND SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTHWARD. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD DEVELOP
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG
AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND ESPECIALLY AREAS WHICH PICKED UP SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT SWEEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





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