Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 010351
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOLER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN CONUS WL
UNDERGO SLOW AMPLIFICATION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPR TROF WL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN SWD INTO THE ERN CONUS AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
SHARPENS OVER THE ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS. THE RESULT WL BE A
REPLACEMENT OF THE CURRENT MODESTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
READINGS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. PCPN CHCS WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO SHRTWVS DROPPING INTO
THE ERN TROF. WITH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...PCPN
TOTALS AT MOST LOCATIONS WL PROBABLY END UP SOMEWHAT BLO NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD. THOUGH GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...SOME
LCNS COULD RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

LOTS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THERE IS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT ENOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUNSET. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED CUMULUS AGAIN BUT
PROBABLY NO SHOWERS DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WINDS SHOULD BE
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV FCST. SPECIFICS OF THE PCPN FCST REMAIN
RATHER ELUSIVE GIVEN THAT THEY WL BE TIED TO SML SCALE SHRTWVS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LNGWV TROF. TDA/S OP
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS GONE BACK TO BEING A LITTLE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PCPN SAT NGT WHEN COMPARED TO YDA. BUT STILL WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATE SUN/SUN EVENING ENDS UP WITH GREATER
COVERAGE/MORE PCPN ACRS THE AREA AS UPR SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF QG
FORCING IS BETTER AT THAT TIME. NEITHER PERIOD SEEMED WORTHY OF
MORE THAN CHC POPS AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COVERAGE
CONCERNS.

AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW DAYS OF RELATIVELY DRY WX WL
FOLLOW THAT...THOUGH HARD TO ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT PCPN DURING THE
EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WK GIVEN CONTD PASSAGE OF WK SHRTWVS IN
NW UPR FLOW.

AFTER A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH MAX TEMPS A LITTLE ABV NORMAL...THE
UPR FLOW TILTING MORE NWLY WL BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIG CHGS MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FCST INITIALIZATION GRIDS BASED ON A BROAD BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SCT STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE OVER NC WI...WHERE MEASURABLE RAIN OCCURRED
THIS PAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY.

SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ARRIVE IN PARTS OF NC/C WI TOWARD
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A SURGE OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME LLWS IS PSBL
AT RHI/AUW/CWA AFTER 04Z/SUN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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