Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 182347
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
647 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance will produce very light snow or
  flurries tonight across the north. Little or no accumulation is
  expected.

- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue into
  next weekend.

- Next chance for widespread snowfall is forecast to arrive a
  little slower with snow overspreading much of the area Thursday
  evening and continuing into Friday morning. Some differences
  between the operational models and the NBM probabilities of 3"
  or more of snow off the DESI on where the heaviest band of snow
  would set up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Stratus clouds will leave the forecast area during the late afternoon
hours as winds back to the west and some drier and milder air arrives
from Minnesota. This should provide us with a little sunshine before
the sun sets this evening.

An upper level disturbance moving by to our north will bring warm
advection, middle clouds and maybe some light snow or flurries across
the northern half of the forecast area later tonight. Little or no
accumulation is expected.

A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and be accompanied
by some clouds but no precipitation. Warm advection ahead of it
and downslope winds will make for high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
above normal over all but northcentral Wisconsin.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

After an exceptional mild winter into the first half of March,
the weather pattern has changed to a below normal pattern for
the next week to ten days. The pattern is also expected
to become more active with a system Thursday night and Friday,
and then another one with a prolong period of precipitation
chances Sunday into next Tuesday. The 500mb northwest flow pattern
will gradually shift to a zonal flow this weekend before becoming
southwest early next week.

For Tuesday night, gusty northwest winds will continue behind
a strong cold front. Very cold air will be filtering southeast
into the area. 850mb temperatures will be around 20C, resulting
in lake effect snow showers across the far north later in the
night which will linger into Wednesday before really dry wipes
out the lake effect snow shower activity. High temperatures will
be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than Tuesday. Northwest winds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will add a chill to the air.

For Wednesday night, high pressure should move across the area
allowing for diminishing winds and cold overnight lows. The
biggest change to the forecast is on Thursday. Later model trends
are slower, thus removed any chance of precipitation. The snow
should overspread much of the area Thursday evening, with the
lowest chances over the far northeast corner of the state.
The clipper system will swing across the region, south of the
area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the
operational models have the highest axis of snowfall from
from near Minneapolis to near Milwaukee. Based off the NBM,
the DESI indicated a 40-70% chance of 3+ inches as far north
as Rhinelander and Sturgeon Bay. Still being 3 days out, there
is a good chance that the axis of heavy snow will still shift.

Friday night through Sunday morning should be tranquil The next
system bring precipitation back into the area on Sunday afternoon
with precipitation lingering all the way into Tuesday. The
precipitation will most likely start out as snow and will likely
transition to a wintry mix or rain early next week.


The system moves
away from the area on Friday, bringing an end to the snow.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Mid-level clouds will thicken and lower a bit this evening as a
clipper low pressure system approaches the area. This system will
bring a chance of light snow or flurries to far northern and
northeast WI from mid-evening through the early overnight hours,
but the TAF sites are expected to remain VFR. A cold front will
sweep across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning,
bringing gusty northwest winds and stratocumulus clouds with bases
between 3500-5000 ft AGL. The exception will be in far north
central WI, where MVFR ceilings and a few flurries may occur
Tuesday morning.

LLWS will develop ahead of the cold front late tonight, then end
as the cold front moves through the region Tuesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....RDM/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch


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