Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 010809
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WL REMAIN ACRS CANADA
THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. A SRN BRANCH OF THE FLOW ACRS THE
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT AMPLIFY TO THE POINT OF BECOMING
BLOCKY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE TREND LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AND
JUST BEYOND LOOKS TO BE FOR SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE FLOW TO
OCCUR...WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A TROF
SETTING UP IN THE JAMES BAY/GREAT LAKES REGION.

TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL...WARM BACK TO NR OR A LITTLE ABV
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN PROBABLY DROP OFF A LITTLE
NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A COUPLE MORE DRY DAYS...RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN MID-WEEK. BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS WET AS THE ONE
LAST WEEK. MOST AREAS WL GET AT LEAST SOME PCPN...BUT TOTAL AMNTS
FOR THE PERIOD ARE HARD TO GAUGE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

QUIET WX WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
HAVING THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RIDGED RIGHT ACRS THE AREA WL
RESULT IN CALM CONDITIONS TNGT. SINCE THERE PROBABLY WONT BE ANY
CLDS...TEMPS COULD STILL FALL TO QUITE CHILLY LEVELS TNGT. AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AGAIN BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY NEW HEADLIES FOR
TNGT.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN REMAINS WHEN TO INTRODUCE PCPN INTO THE FCST
AS MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN THIS REGARD. THE BLOCKY
UPR PATTERN TO OUR EAST IS PARTIALLY TO BLAME AND DO NOT EXPECT
THE MODELS TO COME TO A CONSENSUS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GRADUALY WARM-UP IN TEMPS...PEAKING
ON THU AND THEN SETTLING CLOSE TO NORMAL HEADED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

HI PRES TO REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD THRU SE
CANADA TUE NGT...THEREBY KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NE WI.
ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS COOL NGTS WL BE A
PREVAILING SOUTH WIND THAT WOULD USHER MILDER AIR INTO WI (8H
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +11C BY 12Z WED). THIS WL HELP HOLD MIN TEMPS
UP IN THE LWR TO MID 40S FAR NE WI...TO THE UPR 40S ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE SFC HI FINALLY LOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION ON WED AS A
WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A
TRAILING CDFNT SW INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF. SHWR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER CNTRL WI BY
WED AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE. THAT BEING SAID...ANY POPS WOULD STILL BE FAIRLY LOW (CHC)
AS THE BETTER LIFT/FORCING TO BE WITH THE CDFNT. TEMPS WL CONT TO
SLOWLY WARM WITH READINGS ON WED REACHING THE LWR TO MID 70S...
EXCEPT MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI.

THIS CDFNT IS FCST TO ONLY SLOWLY PUSH EWD TOWARD THE MN/WI BORDER
WED NGT...BUT TEND TO STALL DUE TO A LACK OF WIND BEHIND IT (MORE
OF A N-NE WIND VERSUS NW). DIMINISHED INSTABILITY POST-SUNSET
SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING PCPN TREND THE FARTHER EAST INTO WI ONE
GETS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS CNTRL WI...BUT TRENDED DRY
TOWARD LAKE MI. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGS LAKESIDE...
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS CNTRL WI WHERE MORE CLOUDS TO RESIDE.

THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF INTO THE MIDWEST ON THU
IS EXPECTED A NUDGE TO THE CDFNT AND BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO
N-CNTRL WI BY 00Z FRI. CAPES ARE FCST TO RISE TO AROUND 1K J/KG
ACROSS CNTRL WI AHEAD OF THE FNT...THUS TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALTHO
WEAK SHEAR VALUES WOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG STORMS. HIGHEST CHC
POPS PLACED OVER N-CNTRL WI WITH ONLY A MINIMAL POP ACROSS E-CNTRL
WI. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...LWR TO MID
70S NORTH AND UPR 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGS SOUTH.

BEST TIME FRAME FOR PCPN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA APPEARS TO BE
THU NGT INTO FRI WITH THE PASSAGES OF THE CDFNT AND SHORTWAVE
TROF. ENUF MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME (DEW POINTS IN THE
50S) TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST INTERVALS OF MODERATE INTENSITY
RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGS COOLER THAN
THU DUE TO CLOUD COVER/PCPN.

PCPN CHCS COULD LINGER INTO FRI NGT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HI PRES OVER ONTARIO ON SAT IS PROGGED TO
SEND ENUF DRY AIR INTO NE WI TO DIMINISH THE PCPN THREAT AND
PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXED SUNSHINE. A PREVAILING EAST WIND
WL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS ON SAT GENERALLY IN THE
LWR TO MID 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI. AFTER A QUIET SAT
NGT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...CLOUDS ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT WHICH IS
FCST TO REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CHC POPS OVER CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS
ON SUNDAY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY JUNE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA AND TNGT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI



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