000
FXUS63 KGRB 160608
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
108 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE E-W ACROSS CENTRAL WISC. CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FIRES UP
AND MOVES EAST. UPPER WAVE PRODUCING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SE MN AND
NE IA. THIRD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP WAS OVER NE MN ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE TROF/FRONT. PRECIP FROM ANY ONE OF THESE THREE FEATURES
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING. AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NW BEHIND THE TROF...RAIN CHANCES
WILL END.

SUNDAY LOOKS MILDER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WEST WINDS. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WISC BY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

TEMP FORECAST THIS PERIOD A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN IS PCPN TRENDS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND LATE
NEXT WEEK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN NORTHERN WI LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND MAY ACCELERATE SOUTH ALONG THE LAKESHORE DURING THE
DAY. A S/W TROF WILL APPROACH OUR NW COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
AND PASS THROUGH GRB CWA ON MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLGT CHC/CHC
POPS OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...
SHORT-WAVE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY (CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IN
C/EC WI) SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY IN PARTS OF C/EC
WI. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY LINGER INTO THE EVG HOURS OVER CENTRAL WI
AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS...AND LIGHT WINDS...LEADING TO CHILLY
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN NC/FAR NE WI
MAY SEE READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S...SO PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF
A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH RETREATS
TO THE EAST...AND SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...COMBINED
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT. INCREASING WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS. A FRONT
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND IN
THE EVENING MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CIGS DUE TO SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......RDM