Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 081705
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE ON PCPN COVERAGE/CHANCES.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN AS UPPER TROF SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DISTURBANCES IN FLOW AROUND LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WED.
CHANCES EXPECTED TO LOWER EACH DAY AS DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN
BEHIND WAVES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON STEEP SIDE TODAY NORTH...DROPPING
WED WITH DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EACH AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OF WISCONSIN. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL KEEP LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE COOLER DURING THE
DAY. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT THINK IT SHOULD BE WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS.

MODELS STARTED TO SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED BECOME
MORE ZONAL AFTER THESE FEATURES PASS AND MODELS HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS SITUATION LEADS TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR AT LEAST
SOME PART OF THE AREA...AS SEEN IN THE MODEL BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OR COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
EVENING. THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH OVERNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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