Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 192333
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
533 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT REGION.

THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING THE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACH.

HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY GOING FOR VILAS COUNTY SINCE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTY SHOULD BE JUST A
BIT HIGHER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE LESS
THAN OPTIMAL FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THAT AREA...BUT STILL THINK THEY
CAN MANAGE TO PICK UP 3 OR 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE COLD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SHOULD COME TO AN END. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR AND IT WILL BE VERY COLD. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES...AND MAY NOT BE ENOUGH DEPENDING IF WINDS GO CALM.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES MAIN ISSUE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DUE TO LACK OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DID SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID CLOUDS...
SO COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES DUE TO SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM.

ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS SCOUR OUT THE 700MB MOISTURE...SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SURFACE/ROAD TEMPERATURES PROBLEMATIC NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...BUT UNUSUALLY
LONG DURATION OF COLD WEATHER HAS MADE ROAD/GROUND TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING. THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIQUID ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THIS REGION. RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SOME QUESTIONS LINGER ON HOW FAST THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.

COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR VILAS COUNTY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

PATCHES OF CLDS AND SCT SHSN SHOULD DECR SOME OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TILTS NWLY ENOUGH
THAT SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHSN COULD REACH RHI LATE TNGT...SO ADDED
TO THE RHI TAF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







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