Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 281952
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.

FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG



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