Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 251738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

SKIES SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WHEREVER
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE A VERY LONG PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES SO WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE IN MOST
PLACES EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR THE LONGEST.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVES FROM IOWA TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY.
IT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO KEEP ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED SNOW CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SNOW FALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING UNTIL THE COLDER
AIR ARRIVES THANKSGIVING DAY. DID LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN ON THANKSGIVING MORNING...WHILE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TONIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
LAST WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH PATH AND SNOW AMOUNTS. FIGURE
THERE WILL BE SOME ISSUES WITH BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. SOME OF THE
MODELS CRANKING OUT 3 TO 6 INCH BAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING PUMPED INTO
THE REGION TO BRING SOME SLEET. WILL HOLD FOR NOW ADDING SLEET TO
THE FORECAST UNTIL I GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. LATEST
CANADIAN/ECMWF BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE SNOW CHANCES AND COULD END UP WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR. ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRING A A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOME
QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...FIGURING OUT LOW CLOUD TRENDS IS
A CHALLENGE. THOUGH THINNING...CLDS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINED ACRS
THE BULK OF THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THEY SHOULD CONT TO THIN AND
SHIFT OFF TO THE E...BUT WK KEEP MVFR CIGS AND SOME FLURRIES GOING
WELL INTO THE AFTN. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLDS FM THE W WL PROBABLY
MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST WRN TAF SITES BEFORE SHIFTG OFF TO THE NE
WITH BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBYS TO DROP OFF
DURING THE NGT DUE TO FOG AS LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN ACRS THE AREA. THIS WAS HINTED AT IN BOTH THE MET AND
LAV GUIDANCE...SO ADDED TO THE TAFS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI






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