Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 090856
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL FOCUS THE BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WITH THIS CONVERGENCE REGION ALONG THE FRONT. STRONG WAA
WITH THE ORIGINALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CREATE SATURATION CHALLENGES
FOR PCPN ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO WILL FURTHER CONFINE
BEST PCPN CHCS POST FRONTAL. SHOWERS MAY NOT EVEN REACH PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...TO
PRODUCE A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES CLIMBED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BIAS CORRECT TEMPS FOR STARTERS AND GO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT. IN ADDITION WILL ALSO RUN WITH A NON DIURNAL
TREND TONIGHT WITH THE CONTINUE STRONG WAA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FROPA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE...OR LOW END
CHANCE...FOR RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PICK UP
SOME GULF MOISTURE SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT. COLDER AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW THERE ALONG WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. CONTINUED WITH
A CHANCE POP SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. THE GFS WAS QUITE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
EC WITH THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE OR AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM BRINGS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 6K
AND 8K FT SOUTHEAST OF GREEN BAY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MIDDLE CLOUDS MAY
RETURN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT OVER SNOW COVERED GROUND IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

BORDERLINE SCA TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT BUT THEN INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST
AFTER THE FROPA FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S EACH TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S OVER
SAND REGIONS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS OF A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH UP TO 0.15 INCHES TOTAL PCPN
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN ON GUSTY
WEST ON THURSDAY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

RIVERS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 HAVE BEEN
RESPONDING TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND SNOW MELT THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH THE RATHER DRY SPRING...THE LATE MELT OF THE SNOW PACK
AND LINGERING FROST DEPTH...RIVER LEVELS OVERALL BEHAVING.
NEVERTHELESS THE MAIN STEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES AND WOLF RIVER AS WELL AS PESHTIGO AND OCONTO WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND FS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHIOCTON IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FS THIS WEEKEND AND WILL
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING LATER THIS WEEK. SYSTEM FOR THIS
WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVER THESE
BASINS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO THIS SYSTEM THIS WEEK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......RDM
MARINE.........TDH
FIRE WEATHER...TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH






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