Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 230312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1012 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The latest rap analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a high
pressure ridge axis extending eastward across southern Minnesota and
central Wisconsin early this afternoon.  To the north, a cold front
is dropping south over northern Minnesota.  Widespread low clouds
exist behind the front, with scattered rain showers and a few snow
showers as well.  As the front drops southward tonight into Sunday,
cloud trends and precip chances are the main forecast concerns.

Tonight...Mostly clear conditions will continue through the evening
thanks to the linger effects of the high pressure ridge axis.  But
the cold front will make inroads into northern Wisconsin late
tonight.  Should see clouds increase there after midnight, with a
few showers possible towards sunrise over Vilas county.  Low temps
will range from the mid 30s north to low 40s south.

Sunday...The front will continue to move south into southern
Wisconsin by late in the afternoon.  Winds will shift to the
northeast behind the front and bring in scattered to broken cloud
cover generally north of highway 29.  With the wind shift,
temperatures are expected to fall over northeast Wisconsin during
the afternoon.  Will have a wide range of high temperatures, with
clouds and a few showers keeping readings in the middle 40s over the
north, while locations in Wood county may climb into the upper 60s
before the wind shift occurs late in the day.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Southwest upper flow will provide several chances for significant
precipitation through the end of next week. Jet energy lifting
northeast from the southern Plains should produce an inverted
trough Monday night with a couple waves of low pressure moving
northeast along a slow moving cold front.

The first should bring rains and perhaps some snow in the far
north Tuesday afternoon or evening through early Wednesday. The
medium range models have different ideas of the track the next
wave of low pressure takes. The ECMWF is furthest west and would
bring another round of precipitation to the area Wednesday night
and part of Thursday, while the GFS is much further east. A
classic synoptic scale weather system is forecast next Sunday that
could bring rain and perhaps snow to the region.

Temperatures will be near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and
near or below normal normal for the rest of the week.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A Canadian cold front will drop into northern Wisconsin overnight
and early Sunday, bringing MVFR and local IFR ceilings to parts
of north central and far northeast WI. Scattered showers are also
anticipated across the north toward daybreak, and lingering into
Sunday. The front will continue to shift south on Sunday, and
accelerate as it moves down Lake Michigan. Although clouds will
also increase farther south, flight conditions should remain VFR
in most spots, and little or no rain is expected. Surface winds
will turn northeast to east in the wake of the frontal passage.

West winds will increase to around 30 knots just off the surface
overnight, but conditions are a little too borderline to add LLWS
to the TAFs.



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