Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 280000 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN THEIR DROP THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LOCALES ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH
WILL HALT THE DROP...BUT IT REMAINS TOUGH TO SAY HOW COLD IT WILL
GET BEFORE THAT POINT. WILL LOWER TEMPS A BIT TO FIT THE CURRENT
TREND...WITHOUT GOING TOO CRAZY YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

IN WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY RARE OCCURRENCE THIS MONTH...THE SUN HAS
FINALLY MADE A PRETTY LENGTHY APPEARANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE EXITING STORM. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING
NEARLY STEADY...EXCEPT THEY HAVE RISEN A BIT ACROSS WRN MN. CLEAR
SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SET TO PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE...
THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
FRESH SNOWPACK AROUND BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT AND HOLDING STEADY
OVERNIGHT. THE SUN HAS LED TO MODEST MELTING TODAY AND WITH A PRETTY
GOOD SHOT AT REACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE THIS EVENING...THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG. LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
REACHED BY LATE MORNING BEFORE CAA KICKS IN. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES...BUT MOST OF THE MOIST LAYER
IS ABOVE -15C SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS THE RETURN OF THE COLD. THE
ONLY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA COMES ON
MONDAY WITH A SECOND SURGE OF COLDER AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST AIR SINCE LAST FEBRUARY. THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS BECOMING A
LITTLE CLEAR AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKE THE PRECIP WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND
THE SREF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A
WEAK WAVE ALONG THE SURGING ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND SPREADING SNOW
ACROSS AT THE FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES FOR >1" AND >4" SNOW IN 12 HOURS HAVE
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST
DOESN`T REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SNOW ON MONDAY OR IF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
SIMPLY COMES THROUGH WITH STRATUS OR FLURRIES...THE AIR MASS TO
FOLLOW IS COLD. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON -18C TO -22C AT 850MB
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND /WHICH MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAS NOW/...THAT TYPE OF AIR MASS CAN YIELD NEAR OR
SUB ZERO HIGHS...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...A FEW DAYS OF BELOW ZERO
LOWS ARE LIKELY IF SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES SHOULD
BE IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING SOME MVFR CIGS WITH IT. DRIER
AIR WILL SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BEGINNING SOUTHWEST THEN VEERING NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY.

KMSP...BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE PERIOD IS WHEN THE MVFR CIGS
ARRIVE. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THEY WILL BE COMING IN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ABOVE FL017.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





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