Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250353
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1053 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Mid level clouds in southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska
have been largely moving eastward. Precipitation has been very
light and generally less than an hour at any given location. It
had looked like the precip would generally slide southeast into
iowa, but there is still enough eastward movement that it merits
adding isolated showers in far south central Minnesota through 7
pm. Latest short term guidance suggests mid level trough axis
will be moving past south central MN by 7 pm. Upper level trough
exits late tonight, with ridging and quiet weather. At the
surface, high pressure in South Dakota will move southeast, and
winds will be lightest in southwest Minnesota. Some weak gradient
will persist from central Minnesota into Wisconsin, just enough
that fog should not be an issue except perhaps in some low spots
of central and southern MN, and this will need to be watched.

Surface high drifts across Iowa tomorrow, with ridge poking
northward into Minnesota. Therefore it looks like it should be a
rather pleasant day, with dew points mostly in the lower 60s and
light winds gradually turning to the southwest in western MN, but
remaining from the northwest in central and eastern MN and
in west central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The longer term concerns will be timing of convective threats in
what appears to be a bit more northwest flow pattern developing
into midweek.

Tuesday appears to be the warmest day of the week as
deterministic models are trying to buckle the northern stream
flow a bit more. The Hudson Bay low becomes a bit more dominant
and drives any northwest coast energy southwest across the
northern plains through the week. This should should increase the
rain/thunder threat into Wednesday as the wave deepens and moves
slowly southeast over the southern Great Lakes. We expect this
to provide at least a chance of rain into at least Friday before
Canadian high pressure drops over the area and begins to dry the
region out into the weekend.

The overall severe weather threat will remain rather low with no
big forcing/instability seen to affect the area. Cloud trends
will also preclude significant warming...with temperatures
trending a few degrees below normal through the end of the
week. More sunshine and rising heights aloft are expected to
return into the weekend with readings returning to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

VFR with no precipitation, ceilings or visibility reductions
expected. Clear skies overnight will be followed by a mix of
FEW/SCT mid and high clouds tomorrow. Generally WNW expected
throughout with speeds dropping to 10 kt or less.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Slgt Chance afternoon TSRA, better chance Tuesday
      evening. Winds SW 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds S 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds NE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



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