Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 310904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEEING STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTH/EAST CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
THE DECK IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...LIKELY GIVEN
THE BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTING FROM THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH AROUND
15Z...WITH SUN BREAKING WAY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL MIGHT BE
A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT DETECTABLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MN
AND WI...BUT NO IMPACT AT THE SURFACE IS FORESEEN.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SAG
INTO WEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH 15G25 KT SPEEDS
COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY HIGHS...GIVEN SIMILAR 925-850 MB TEMPS...BUT
MORE EFFICIENT MIXING WITH THE STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY WINDS.

THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE H7-H85 WARM NOSE...DO NOT EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MPX CWA. AFTER DARK
HOWEVER...DO SEE HEIGHT FALLS INTO CENTRAL MN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MN. COULD ENVISION A FEW SHOWERS/TS SNEAKING
AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE MILLE LACS TO LADYSMITH LATE TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED 20 POPS FOR THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE LOW TEMPERATURES AT MSP. ONLY
TWICE HAS THERE BEEN A 4-DAY STREAK IN SEPTEMBER OF LOW TEMPS 70DEG
OR WARMER...AND CURRENTLY THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THE 2ND THROUGH
THE 5TH. THE PREVIOUS SEPTEMBER WARM SPELLS WERE IN 1931 (6 DAYS)
AND 1960 (5 DAYS).

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND BRING SEASONABLY WARM AIR ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PROLONGED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL ALSO INCREASE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 EXPECTED BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE NOCTURNAL COOLING AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIP CHANCES BECAUSE THERE
IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PLUS
DID NOT WANT TO WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH FROM A DRY TO WET FORECAST.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE EXACT
LOCATION/TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION SO STILL ONLY HAVE A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE REASON FOR THE VARIABILITY STEMS
FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH ORIGINS TIED TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
THAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE BAJA. THIS WAVE WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOT TO MENTION HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE WEST
COAST TROUGH...CANT LATCH ON TO ONE PARTICULAR SOLUTION. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WEST OF I-
35...SPREADING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD
WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS THE PWATS CLIMB NEAR 2
INCHES...AND MEAN LAYER WIND (STORM MOTION) BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

BEGINNING TO SEE CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME. VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO
BETWEEN 5-7SM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND A FEW SITES ARE NOW
REPORTING SCT-BKN IFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IOWA/SWRN MN/ERN SD. KHCD
AND KSTC HAVE ALSO HAD SCT007/SCT010 OBS RESPECTIVELY. SO...IT
MAY TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BUT STILL BELIEVE WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KMSP...PUSHED BACK THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF IFR CIGS A COUPLE
HOURS TO 07Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC EPISODES OF VFR
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MORE LIKELY THAN NOT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
REPEAT OF THE LAST COUPLE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE-THU...VFR WINDS S 5-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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