Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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131
FXUS63 KMPX 041124
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
524 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND THE AREA
OF SNOW LIGHTING UP THE RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND PV MAXIMA MOVING
TOWARD CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS A SURFACE REFLECTION WIT A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
PRECIP. CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-RES CAMS AS THE MAIN BASIS
FOR THE POP AND SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST. THE EXPECTATION IS AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...MOST HEAVILY AFFECTING THE I-94 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ST.
CLOUD AND THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH GENERALLY
1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN A FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ST CLOUD AREA FROM
ROUGHLY 6AM TO 9AM.

AS FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
SNOW TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MOST OF THE MORNING RUSH IS OVER...STARTING
BETWEEN 8-9 AM...ENDING AROUND NOON-1PM. OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH METRO...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH WESTERN WI DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE CLEARING PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH INTO
THE EVENING. ONE OF THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WAS TO REDUCE
SKY COVER FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID DRYING
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. WE`LL SEE HIGH CLOUDS WORKING BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS TEMPS VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A PACIFIC ORIGIN TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT
ACRS THE ROCKIES THU NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FRI THRU FRI NIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL
BE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE UPR LVL SUPPORT AS THE WAVE DIGS DEEPER
ONCE IT IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN A NARROWLY CONFINED DEEPER SWATH OF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A QUICK-SHOT OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. AM ONLY LOOKING FOR
AROUND AN INCH...POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE
WFO CWFA...FRI AFTN THRU FRI NIGHT. THIS TROF EJECTS TO THE E BY
DAYBREAK SAT MRNG AND WILL NO LONGER BE OF CONSEQUENCE. THE
CONCERN WITH THIS WAVE IS THE TIMING OF IT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE FRI EVE COMMUTE WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE MID 20S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE BULK OF SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE BENIGN
AS A SHARP UPR LVL RIDGE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL GLIDE
ACRS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR
THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE START OF WAA WHICH WILL BE MOST FELT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL INCRS TO THE LOW MID 30S WHILE
LOWS SAT NIGHT ONLY DROP TO THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO A MORE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND S-SW LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A MORE
POTENT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT THRU
EARLY MON MRNG. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HAVING A
MORE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A SHARP LONGWAVE TROF
MOVING ONSHORE WRN NOAM SAT MRNG PICKING UP A SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER NWRN CANADA. THIS SFC LOW WILL DRIVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY BY SUN MRNG WHILE THE UPR TROF PIVOTS
AND DIGS FURTHER S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC FEATURE TO DEEPEN
DURING ITS PASSAGE AND BECOME A LARGE DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER
THE GRT LAKES BY MON MRNG. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN APPRECIABLE
AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION WHILE IT
ALSO TAPS INTO SOME ARCTIC MOISTURE AS WELL...MAKING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR-MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT ATTM TO DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS...AM
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 6 INCHES BUT MORE IN
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AS AN EARLY-ON PROJECTION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO MON...IT WILL MEANDER OVER THE GRT
LKS WHILE A POIGNANT RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WRN CONUS. THIS RIDGE-
WEST TROF-EAST PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG CAA FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE SFC PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE STRONG
WINDS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD SUN INTO TUE. THE STRONG WINDS... IN
THE 15-25 KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA...WILL MAKE FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES EARLY ON NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
CREATING SEVERAL PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. HAVE MADE MENTION OF
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK /HWO/. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RISE TO THE MID
30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ON MON IN THE UPR TEENS TO LWR 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE STILL-ROTATING DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...SPELLING A DRY PERIOD IN THE FCST. HOWEVER...DEEP
AND PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT CAA WILL BE IN EARNEST
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ADDING IN A GOOD
SNOWPACK THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE...THIS MEANS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE MID TEENS
WHILE LOWS DROP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW JUST REACHED ALEXANDRIA AND
WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...REACHING STC
AROUND 13Z AND MSP AROUND 15Z. COULD SEE PERIODS OF VSBY AROUND
1SM OR SLIGHTLY UNDER. ACCUMULATION GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES.
CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN WITH THE SNOW AND STAY AT MVFR LEVELS
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES...WITH THE SAME
EXPECTATION FOR WESTERN WI...BUT A FEW HOURS LATER. EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO BEGIN ERODING ACROSS WESTERN MN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...EASTERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WESTERN WI AFTER
DARK. JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

KMSP...THE MOST QPF IS PREDICTED TO SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHERN
METRO...BUT THAT IS AWFULLY CLOSE TO MSP TO NOT BE ON ALERT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR VSBY TO FALL DOWN TO 1/2SM BRIEFLY IF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND FINDS ITS WAY JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHAT THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. WIND SW/S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR-IFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING NW LATE AT 25G35KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD



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