Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1200 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATED for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Extensive stratus and scattered showers/sprinkles have been the
main story today as cyclonic flow continues behind a departing
weather system. This stratus will dissipate from southwest to
northeast this evening and it is already breaking up across the
Dakotas. The circulation will remain across northern Minnesota and
Wisconsin Monday with clouds likely lingering there, with the rest
of the region mostly clear.

Gusty northwest winds will ease somewhat this evening, but with
plenty of sun in most areas tomorrow and mixing depths increasing
to 6 or 7 kft, it will become windy. Forecast soundings show the
potential for 35-40 mph gusts by midday. Not enough for a wind
advisory, but it will certainly be noticeable.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

After the recent weather one might think we deserve a break, and it
certainly looks like we will get one. Things look to be dry through
the period, with slightly below normal temperatures at the start
warming up to a bit above normal by the end. If you haven`t put away
your golf clubs or have other outdoor activities in mind, you`re in
luck from Tuesday onward, particularly by the weekend. The upper
trough currently working into the area will be located over the
Great Lakes by Monday night, and will very slowly work its way
southeast on Tuesday. This will keep cooler northwest upper flow
around into Tuesday, and with cyclonic flow and some lingering low
level moisture the north/east portion of the area could continue to
see a few SHRA, particularly during the day on Tuesday as a decent
shortwave rotates around the backside of the upper low. However,
most of the area should be partly sunny and dry through that period.
By Wednesday the upper ridge will start to build in from the west,
and will arrive in earnest by Thursday, with moderating temperatures
as we head into the weekend. The model guidance has trended slower
in the evolution of the large scale pattern over the past several
runs, with the next chances of precipitation associated with return
flow/warm advection now looking like they won`t get into the western
portion of the area until perhaps late Saturday night or Sunday,
with most of the area, including the Twin Cities metro, possibly
staying dry until Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR conditions throughout. The main concern is breezy northwest
winds of 15 kt overnight. These winds will increase by mid to late
morning, with afternoon gusts near 30 kts. Winds will taper off
near sunset. Expect clouds mainly east of I-35, and clear skies
mainly west of I-35.

Showers should stay north of MSP tonight, and expect VFR
conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy northwest winds
will be the main issue during the forecast period. These will
dissipate near sunset on Monday.

Tue...Chc MVFR early then VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind light and variable.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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