Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 300911
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Today will be another mostly cloudy day with a few showers
although most locations should stay dry. Temperatures will be
similar to Monday, with highs in the 50s north of I-94, and lower
60s elsewhere. Overnight skies will clear and low temperatures
will fall into the 40s once again.

The upper level low will continue to rotate across Ontario and send
shortwaves of positive vorticity across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Forecast soundings show deeper moisture for Tuesday than they did
for Monday, but it also seems that the past couple of days the
clouds have broken up more than anticipated. Still have a slight
chance of precip. There is hardly any instability meaning the chance
for thunder is too low to mention in the forecast so have only rain
showers. Areas that do see rain could pick up a quick tenth of an
inch, but overall most locations will stay dry or only measure a
trace. Overnight winds gusts will taper off and should see skies
clear quickly from west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

A return to more summerlike temperatures will begin the long term
period with the persistent trough finally making an effort to
lift northeast from the region. Increasing heights and mid level
temperatures will allow for a quick moderation to the 70s
Wednesday and mid 70s to mid 80s Thursday accompanied by plenty
of sun.

The trough will not completely lose its influence on our weather,
however, even through the weekend. A broad region of low pressure
over the northern Rockies will shift eastward to the northern
Plains Friday. A front will stretch eastward somewhere in the
vicinity of the I-94 or I-90 corridor depending on the model
solution, and serve as a focus for thunderstorm development
Thursday night through Saturday. Large scale forcing for ascent is
lacking, aside from perhaps some low level jet support. That
should limit the extent of thunderstorms; but good low level
convergence near the front, seasonably high PWATs, and a tight
instability gradient should be enough for development throughout
this time period. The mid level jet is displaced northward from
the greatest instability, which should also limit the severe
threat.

The ECMWF has shifted well north of the GFS and GEM with where
the front lays out, but the 00Z run of the GEFS has begun to trend
that way as well with several of its members. Increased PoPs north
of I-94 from the initial model blend with this trend in mind.
There remains rather high spatial uncertainty for late week.

Another cooling trend will follow for the weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

MVFR stratus clouds are expected to build in again around and
shortly after daybreak Tuesday. West/northwest wind gusts
increase to between 22 and 25 kts around 15z Tuesday, with
isolated showers developing again for the daytime hours. Winds
decrease and cigs return to VFR after 00z Wed.

KMSP...
No variations from the above discussion anticipated.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS



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