Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 272058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Main concern in the near term is timing of any clearing across the
region tonight and how warm to go Friday afternoon.

Pesky narrow band of light showers/sprinkles exiting west central
WIsconsin late this afternoon. It should remain dry the remainder of
the period. Lower clouds remain over most of the CWA this moist lower level southeast/south flow continues.
Still anticipate overall lower cloud clearing trend to occur during
the night. Latest RAP showing lower level relative humidity clearing
to the northeast...along and north of I94 through about 07z. Slower
to clear into western Wisconsin. Southerly winds will remain up this will preclude significant fog from forming. Did
mention some patchy fog to the far east...where winds will be

Warming ahead of the incoming cold front should warm temperatures
into at least the lower 70s to the southwest...record for MSP is 75
in 1948...with mid/upper 60s common elsewhere. The front will
contain a fair amount of high clouds...but we expect the lower
clouds to gradually break up over the far eastern areas into Friday
morning. They may return in the afternoon with the approach of the
cold front and lower level begin to saturate again.  Will likely see
some wind gusts around 30 mph into the afternoon...mainly into south
central MN as the gradient tightens vicinity of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A progressive weather pattern will set through next week with
several upper level waves brining areas of surface high pressure and
low pressure though the region. This will bring windy conditions
across the Upper Midwest. The best chance for rain will be Saturday
afternoon across central MN/WI, and again on Monday across northern
MN/WI. At this time no heavy precipitation is expected.

On Friday night a cold front will move through the region. H850
temperatures at forecast to go from 15C to around 0C between 00Z
Saturday and 00Z Sunday. This cold air advection will keep the
boundary layer mixed and Saturday will be cool and blustery with
northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph. An Upper Level shortwave will skirt
west to east across the region and lead to mid level clouds along
with some light rain, but accumulations should only be around a
tenth of an inch or less since this system will be weakening, not

Sunday will be the nicer day of the two this weekend as high
pressure builds across the region and then tracks eastward during
the day. Therefore expect light winds to start off the day, but then
a warm southerly breeze will ensue during the afternoon. Monday
winds will increase once again, and in fact will likely end up
higher than currently forecast, especially if there is some sun in
the warm sector across southern MN. Most of the precipitation will
stay north of I-94 on Monday.

Looking ahead, a cold front will push well south of the area Monday
night, but there is not much temperature advection. The rain will be
focused along this frontal boundary while high pressure brings dry
weather for the Upper Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Lower end confidence on overall low cloud trends into tonight.
Couple of scenarios that could play out. IFR/MVFR cigs did erode
briefly this morning to the southwest. However moist southerly low
level flow continues and trends on hires models ceiling forecast
is not looking too good for widespread improvement. The northern
and eastern areas may remain in the lower cigs into tonight...before
the lower level flow turns more southwest. This should erode the
lower ceilings to the northeast into the night...with just high
clouds remaining. Started out with lower clouds...with possible
improvement to the southeast into the evening. Tried to erode
clouds to the east later tonight. Followed the .5km condensation
pressure deficit humidity prog from the latest RAP which was
slowest on drying out the lower layer. Southeast to south winds 5
to 10 mph into tonight becoming more sw and becoming gusty ahead
of the cold front which moves into western MN Friday morning.

Lower confidence on overall low cloud trends into tonight. We
could see lower end mvfr cigs remaining into the night...perhaps
finally lifting to the northeast after 06z...with trend of lower
level humidity progs from the RAP. This should become more evident
during the afternoon and could update to leave in the mvfr into
tonight. Expect southeast to south winds into the period...becoming
more southwest and gusty into Friday afternoon ahead of the cold

Fri nite...VFR. northwest 5 to 10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/SHRA possible. Wind N at 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SSE 5 kts.




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